jamestampa

02-19-2010, 04:00 PM

QUESTION

What is the probability TODAY that over the next ten years that "EVENT X" will occur based on the following criteria.

*There is a 50% probability that EVENT X will happen within the first two years.

*During years three and four there is a 25% probability that EVENT X will happen.

*There is a 10% probability that EVENT X will occur from years five and six.

*The last four years, there is only only a 5% chance of EVENT X happening.

Now the embarrassing part. I know the site says that effort must be shown, but I have an AA, BA, and JD degree, so my schooling days are behind me and I am kind of swamped. This is an argument (friendly) between my wife and I on the probability of EVENT X occurring within ten years. To say we are far apart on our analysis is an understatement (over 40%).

If anyone can help.....much appreciated!

What is the probability TODAY that over the next ten years that "EVENT X" will occur based on the following criteria.

*There is a 50% probability that EVENT X will happen within the first two years.

*During years three and four there is a 25% probability that EVENT X will happen.

*There is a 10% probability that EVENT X will occur from years five and six.

*The last four years, there is only only a 5% chance of EVENT X happening.

Now the embarrassing part. I know the site says that effort must be shown, but I have an AA, BA, and JD degree, so my schooling days are behind me and I am kind of swamped. This is an argument (friendly) between my wife and I on the probability of EVENT X occurring within ten years. To say we are far apart on our analysis is an understatement (over 40%).

If anyone can help.....much appreciated!