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jamestampa
02-19-2010, 04:00 PM
QUESTION

What is the probability TODAY that over the next ten years that "EVENT X" will occur based on the following criteria.

*There is a 50% probability that EVENT X will happen within the first two years.

*During years three and four there is a 25% probability that EVENT X will happen.

*There is a 10% probability that EVENT X will occur from years five and six.

*The last four years, there is only only a 5% chance of EVENT X happening.

Now the embarrassing part. I know the site says that effort must be shown, but I have an AA, BA, and JD degree, so my schooling days are behind me and I am kind of swamped. This is an argument (friendly) between my wife and I on the probability of EVENT X occurring within ten years. To say we are far apart on our analysis is an understatement (over 40%).

If anyone can help.....much appreciated!

clbustos
02-19-2010, 05:15 PM
p1=0.5
p2=0.25
p3=0.10
p4=0.06

probability year 2= p1 -> 0.5
probability year 4= pac4 = p1+(1-p1)*p2 -> 0.625
probability year 6= pac6 =pac4+(1-pac4)*p3 -> 0.6625
probability year 10=pac10 =pac6+(1-pac6)*p4 -> 0.679375

jamestampa
02-19-2010, 06:37 PM
Thank you!

My wife has conceded defeat! :)

clbustos
02-21-2010, 12:05 AM
Hehehe. Cool.