Bayes' Theory

[flag3k]

Hi i'm currently working on a horse race prediction project and trying to include bayes' theory in my project. The thoery is new to me I am trying to mould the equation so I can fit in the horse probability of winning a race i.e 1/10 if their are ten horses given that the horses rating (gained from adding together its speed rating and jockey rating etc) is higher than the other horses. I am just stuggling to try and mould bayes theory to fit this into it.
Any help on how this could potentially work would be greatly apprciated!

Thanks
Flag

[Ksharp]

Why not to read some books about it.
It's too much about Bayes.
First, you need pre-prediction-probability,then mix the real data to adjust your
prediction probability(post-prediction-probability).

[gianmarco]

Hi!
Sorry if my reply is poor, but my knowledge of Bayesian inference is very basic !

Some time ago I found interesting this video lesson dealing with Bayesian posterior probability in Excel environment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQ7uYel4qqk


Hope this helps.

Regards
Gm