Sailr

07-18-2010, 10:10 PM

I am not a statistics person. A friend of mine and I were chatting over a beer and were trying to figure the following problem out. Given our lack of knowledge on statistics, we ultimately agreed that we were both useless when it came to figuring it out. Here it is.

A given problem or hypothesis contains 100 interrelated variables.

You believe your measurement that determined the value of each variable is 99% accurate. (Assume all values are weighted equally, to keep this simple.)

What is the probability that, when you add these variables together, you will reach the correct conclusion?

if the variables are not weighted equally, but you are still 99% confident in each variables measurement, does this lessen or increase the probability that your outcome will be correct?

We both believe that the probability the correct answer will be reached is less than 99% and think that 1% of uncertainty across 100 different variables is significant, but we don't know what the probability actually is or how you would calculate it.

I apologize in advance if I am not using the correct statistical terms to pose this question. Can someone help us get to the correct answer?

Thanks!

A given problem or hypothesis contains 100 interrelated variables.

You believe your measurement that determined the value of each variable is 99% accurate. (Assume all values are weighted equally, to keep this simple.)

What is the probability that, when you add these variables together, you will reach the correct conclusion?

if the variables are not weighted equally, but you are still 99% confident in each variables measurement, does this lessen or increase the probability that your outcome will be correct?

We both believe that the probability the correct answer will be reached is less than 99% and think that 1% of uncertainty across 100 different variables is significant, but we don't know what the probability actually is or how you would calculate it.

I apologize in advance if I am not using the correct statistical terms to pose this question. Can someone help us get to the correct answer?

Thanks!