I have a question that I figured I post to see some other people opinions.

I'm part of a sport where there are multiple individual leagues of 12 people. All the people partisipating are put into a pool and then each league is randomly drawn from that total pool of entrants. The higher the seeding the better the players chances of winning are.

I was wondering if the amount of leagues and total people partisipating has an effect on the probability of getting the top seed.

I realize that if there was only 1 league (12 people) each would have a 1 in 12 chance to get the top seed. But, what if there were 2 leagues created out of a 24 person pool. Would the odds still be 1 in 12?

I guess I'm just curious if the amount of people in the total pool and leagues would create a different variable we're not taking into consideration.

Any help clearing this up would be appreciated.

Based on the way you've described it, there won't be any difference in the probability of winning with 1 league of 12 or 2 leagues with 24 or 3 leagues with 36.....and so on

- as long as over the long run, the "quality" of the participants in each league is approximately the same - but of course, in any given distribution/assignment, the odds of winning may be changed by how people are matched up and their individual ability levels...

A person can only be assigned to 1 league, and once they've been assigned, the chances are stil 1 in 12.

Changing the size of an individual league would obviously change the odds of winning, however....