Polling Question

[bankshot]

Suppose a presidential poll shows, say, Obama beating McCain 46% to 43%, plus or minus 4%. Does the error band form a bell curve, or is it flat, or what? That is, is 47% to 42% more likely than 50% to 39%, or are all possible results within the margin of error equally likely?

Thanks!

[JohnM]

It tends to form a bell curve