You will have to forgive my very basic understanding of probability, but any help would be appreciated.

Basically I have a system that assigns a rating to an athlete based on a number of parameters. This rating is an indicator of how good a performance was on any given day of competition, the higher the rating the better the performance.

I was wondering if there was any formula that could be used to predict the rating of the athletes next performance. I have attached an excel spreadsheet detailing an example of what I am talking about. Column F is the date of the competition, column G is the athletes rating on that day.

Is there any excel formula that would predict this ?

Any help would be great thanks.

Bridge is a wonderful and very complex card playing game with thousands of books written about it.

For those who do not know it:

- Deck has 52 cards
- Rank per suit (high to low) is AKQJT98765432
- Points per card: A=4, K=3, Q=2, J=1, rest = 0
- Two teams (North/South versus East/West) compete to get the best score based on number of tricks made

Now, to get a higher level of expertise at the game, I must gain more knowledge about the probilities that are important in this game, for instance, given a certain distribution of spades between North and South, what is the best way (an optimum of "max tricks" versus "max probility") to play the suit.

There are some books that specificcally address this problem, with a well described mathematical background (combinations/permutations, etc) on how to calculate best results. These books deal with situations where a distribution whithin a partnership is know, for instance:

- North: AJT76
- South: Q98

However, bridge starts with the bidding phase as I mentioned, and to my knowledge, there are

The bidding phase starts with the first player trying to evaluate the "trick potential worth" of his own 13 cards. This is normally a combination of counting points (number of AKQJ, 25+ is considered extra worth, due to the reward system) and distribution (8-card is worth a lot more than 2-card, easier to make more tricks).

Extreme examples:

- North has all 13 spades? --> 13 tricks in a spade contract (with only 10 points)

North has 28 points (all aces and kings), but only has 8 tricks

Examples, per suit, for the first bidding player (North), with no other information:

- North has: AKQJT --> 100% certain, 5 tricks worth
- North has: AQJT9 --> How much % exactly?
- If partner South has K (33%) --> 100%
- If East has K (33%) than still make 5 tricks if K singleton, else 4 tricks
- If West has K (33%) than it depends on the number of cards South has in the suit
- If South has 0, E makes a trick on 2+card
- If South has 1, E makes a trick on 3+card, etc

- North has: AKJT9 --> How much % exactly?
- Like above, but better for NS
- North has: AJT98 --> How much %?
- Both Q and J are missing
- Calculation gets complicated
- In the last example, exact calculation gets complicated because for each missing card, partner must have it, OR must have enough length in the suit to finesse it.
- Let me try to explain further:
- When I have AQJT9, missing only the K, probilities are easaly calculated.
- Partner might have the K (problem solved), or there will be a finesse (50%)
- When I have AJT98, two cards are missing, KQ, less easy to calculate.
- Partner might have them both (problem solved), or else....
- What now?

North has: AQT32 versus AQT98

North has: AJT32 versus AJT98

etc

So, my topic, how do I evaluate just a single suit, in a single hand, without knowing anything about the other 3 hands (players). ]]>