Recent content by mthelm

  1. M

    What kind of distribution to model new business success

    Nice! This is perfect!
  2. M

    What kind of distribution to model new business success

    BLS data show that the probability of a new business remaining in business after 1 year is 80%, after 2 years it's 70%, after 5 years it drops to 50% and the probability of still being around after 10 years is 30%. What kind of distribution can I use to model this? I've been searching online for...
  3. M

    Which distance metric should I use for county clustering?

    I've thought about weighting them but it's not clear just yet how to do so. The other thing that I worry about with these variables is the possibility that they correlate with one another. Does that even matter in this context? For example, if average educational attainment correlates with...
  4. M

    Which distance metric should I use for county clustering?

    I'm trying to cluster U.S. counties based on the following characteristics: Median wages Unemployment rate Average educational attainment Population Many clustering algorithms require the calculation of a distance matrix but I'm having trouble evaluating the pros and cons of the different...
  5. M

    How do I fit a distribution to these data?!?!

    I actually have two different datasets - the second one is similar to this one, just with lower mean, median, etc. I want to be able to make some probability statements about the two processes that generated these data. For example, under process A, the probability of a measurement being >...
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    How do I fit a distribution to these data?!?!

    I am trying to fit a distribution to some data that consist of measurements of dollar amounts. The range is basically 0 to 300,000 (this range encompasses more than 99% of all measurements), although there are measurements that exceed this. The summary stats for the data look like this: Summary...
  7. M

    Beta distribution - mean vs mode

    As I understand it, the mean is the expected value over the long-run and I would have thought that the expected value would be where the likelihood is maximized (in the case of a unimodal distribution, at the mode....)
  8. M

    Beta distribution - mean vs mode

    I'm new to probability distributions and I'm trying to understand something about the Beta distribution. Suppose I am practicing kicking field goals and I want to understand the probability of successful attempts. If I create a Beta distribution like this: Beta(20,10) Where 20 is the number of...