Recent content by mvernengo

I tried with states (temp, hour), state 1 S1 is (- 3,0) S2 (- 3,1) etc, that would do, the problem its that the matrix is 314x314, the idea is to obtain the steady state that gives the prob of each temp x hour in the long term, i ll try to program it in visual basic.

I dont understand "impact of price change to revenue" i suppose its to predict the next price, and to only have 4 data or 4 x 12 data "four years of monthly data". Plus without any more info its hard to visualize what model would fit. Also revenue could affect price among others things.

stocastic process, markov chain with no absortion state a) the same in two successive hours and b)&c) +/- anything else... the state matrix is needed and also is supposed to be known "i know the probability for each temp" the calculations are straigh foward but too long to put them here, too...

yes, totally a poisson process mu (mean) = lambda x t so in this case lambda = 30 and t=2\3 the only variable r=1 Pr(r=1)= mu^r x exp(-mu) | r!

i am not sure if that may be what you mean, but here is what i figure it out, hope i can contribute in some way always P(at least one) = 1 - P(0) example: in ww2 to hit an aeroplane, chance per rifle = 0.03 but what if a group of 150 infantry shots at the same time -> then 0 hits = 1.04% and...

Combinat(10;A) *combinat(16:B) gives total per case then divide by total cases

at high risk of just shown some huge ignorance in general, but i see that some values have 2 probabilities. for example -1 has 0.82 ok; but -0.5 have 0.7 and 0.9