Recent content by Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    WANTED: A Medical Community with Average Performance Dr Fauci and the CDC stand by the official US COVID toll … which would mean that Americans are dying from the disease at a rate more than 5X that of the rest of the world. In population-per-COVID-death (10/26): United States (328M/231K) =...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Progressive elite as Nero, an alleged arsonist: The Myth of ‘Build Back Better’ (10/26). But, at least Nero had a solid (pre-existing!) rebuilding plan and made it happen, capped with an immense bronze statue of himself. Today’s globalist elites’ core-competencies are more along the lines of...
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    Election 2020

    WANTED: Nonpartisan Election 2020 Metric How about ‘time’? Time doesn't generally stir partisan-bias, applies equally for everyone, including both sides of the political aisle, and can't be manipulated. Let’s look at when Election 2020 will be ‘called’, presumably within the margin-of-lawyer...
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    Election 2020

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. -- Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850) Some people work for a living, while others vote for a living. -- Anonymous You say you want a revolution..?!? Well, this Brit says we can't pull...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    This is a continuation of post (scroll down)… Oh, there he is… Here’s a retrospective critique of Sweden’s casual response to the pandemic (10/6): ‘It’s been so, so surreal.’ Critics of Sweden’s lax pandemic policies face fierce backlash. In an inversion of the dynamics in most countries...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    This is a continuation of post (scroll down). hysteria [noun]: a highly-communicable affliction, transmitted by the airwaves, when this metric explodes in the epicenter of American media … the (self-proclaimed) Greatest City on Earth. Seen the lights go out on Broadway … too bad they couldn't...
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    Election 2020

    European gamblers have ‘bet the farm’ on Biden (10/12; Euro-bias = faulty data?). Oddschecker’s composite linear odds-implied probabilities appear below, chronicling the improbable incredible rise of the Joe Juggernaut… …Oddschecker notes that “odds say Biden is now over twice as likely as...
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    Election 2020

    THAT CERTAINLY DIDN'T TAKE LONG Category (Part 1): Just a few weeks ago, the Department of Homeland Security declared that ‘white supremacists’ are the biggest domestic terrorist threat. Well, through “the efforts of more than 200 state and federal law enforcement officials”, we finally can see...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    If only we’d preemptively adopted African administration and health-care systems… Coronavirus in Africa: Five reasons why Covid-19 has been less deadly than elsewhere (10/8)... Quick action Public support Young population - and few old-age homes Favorable climate Good community health...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    The Wall Street Journal asks, probably rhetorically… Q: Why doesn’t the media listen to these [prize-winning] scientists? (10/6, WSJ paywall; more here) A: Because their message conflicts with the media’s Compelling Narrative, which is sacred. Not that academic and professional credentials...
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    Election 2020

    With President Trump out of the hospital and back in the saddle, let’s revisit the odds-implied probabilities ... Smarkets is now joined by Betfair and four other betting houses in providing odds on Election 2020. RCP uses the linear odds-to-probs conversion in determining the average implied...
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    Election 2020

    President Trump and the First Lady are diagnosed with COVID-19, which confounds the oddsmakers … only one betting house, Smarkets, has a line on Election 2020 at press time. Like Real Clear Politics, Smarkets helpfully calculates -- linearly -- the implied probabilities from their odds, which...
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    Election 2020

    What ... no emojis? So sorry if my off-colour remark triggers your religious sensibilities… Tired of all this ‘biasball’? “It’s an insane world…” here in 2020, so why not ‘blaseball’ (10/14). A UK superfan, with Elton-John attire. will explain this nuanced, inclusive virtual sport.
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    Election 2020

    With his debate success (see above), Joe Biden now leads in RCP Average probability: Biden at 60.1% and Trump at 40.1% (which oddly sum to more than 100%, 10/1; as noted earlier, the RCP Average uses linear odds-to-probs conversion, which understates the probability of the favorite, as the odds...
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    Election 2020

    Your call, of course, but check out this odd probability action... Biden has almost an 80% chance of winning the first Presidential Debate... ...with the 'winner' being determined by a 'CNN Snap Poll'. Talk about layered uncertainty ... which at this point shouldn't surprise anyone, I...