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    Multiple layers of probability

    Dear @Dason , Thanks again for the reply. I've found a really useful excel solver but I think I must be misinterpreting the output somehow as the 'checker' for my puzzle says the figures are not correct. I'm happy with the input but would you mind helping me (hopefully a final time!) check my...
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    Multiple layers of probability

    Hi @Dason Thank you very much! This brought me a massive step closer. I've been reading about Markov chains and definitely see how the application, but my biggest issue is the 'lost' option in my example that has no arrows out. From what I can see, this may mean it's a hidden Markov chain, but...
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    Multiple layers of probability

    Hi, I'm sorry for not using the correct terms, but I have a problem that involves multiple layers of probability that I could solve by myself eventually, but it would take days of manual labour to systematically work through, so there must be a faster way. I would very much appreciate any...