$100 via paypal for help on this issue

[Eyass]

Dear community,

I have an issue with SPSS on how to analyze some data.

Background
We are studying a thing called The Gambler's Fallacy, where it is stated that for example if 3 Reds show up in a row in roulette, people tend to bet on black instead, even though the outcomes are not correlated.

In order to make the analysis easier we modified the roulette game (it was a software) to always give the same sequence of colors, so that for every individual that did the test, the outcome would be the same.

We have data for 2 different populations, and every population consists of 100 people. In order to create a variable that actually captures "how many times has color X appeard in a row" we re-coded the data for the outcome of the roulette game as following:

Assume that Red is 1 and Black is 2
Lets say we had the following sequence:
1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1

According to our data recode, the data for the outcome would now look like the following:
0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0, 1

So every time the outcome changes color, the value would be 0, and then increase for every color that is the same in a row.

Now, what we want to do it to see whether or not there is a correlation between people's bets on a certain color (coded as 1 or 2), and the value of the variable I just explained. We want to compare the two populatins, and also check between men and women (we have gender data for each individual)

How should this be done in the most convenient manner? I am not even sure if the method we have chosen is the best one. Basically what we want to do it to correlate which color an individual bets on, given the colors that have appeared before.
As I said, we will give $100 via paypal to the one that helps us out.

Thank you for your time!
//Two stressed out students

[Eyass]

Dear **********************,

I forgot to mention that in my first post, but we have coded the data as you described, with 0 if the individual's bet is the same and 1 if it isnt.

In the image (please see link below) you can see how the data is set up for a certain population. As the data for each individual is "if the same as the previous round" our 15 rounds of roulette are now 14 as we removed the first round.



The question now is why the binary logistic analysis alters the following error in the output window:

The dependent variable has more than two non-missing values. For logistic regression, the dependent value must assume exactly two values on the cases being processed.

Also, if I conduct the logistic regression, as you said, I will get 100 rows x 15 rounds of roulette, but will I also get some kind of summary for the whole population, since that is what we are interested in.

Thank you very much for your help. Please PM me your email adress and I will transfer the token of our appreciation as soon as we have resolved this issue

Kind regards,
Eyass

[Dr.Appalayya]

By the by, how to create another data set from the existing set by using crosstab as you mentioned while explaining?