Thread: Probability on a Multiple Choice exam

1. Re: Probability on a Multiple Choice exam

That is exactly what I am saying for the last part of what you said. That is why I said given you eliminate two answers and not your initial guess then this is the monty hall problem. It is only one scenario, there are many possible scenarios you could be in that wouldn't be the monty hall.

2. Re: Probability on a Multiple Choice exam

Originally Posted by TheEcologist
I'm afraid I'll have to correct you there Dason (there's a first, I never thought would happen ).
After giving this some thought, I would like to debate you on this for this reason.

For the game show situation, you have no idea what the "answer" is. That is, you choose blindly with equal probability. It is only AFTER you choose that some wrong answers are pointed out and your probability changes.

For the situation presented, the OP didn't say that you choose A BEFORE ruling out B and C. My assumption is that you would choose A after reading the question and the answers (and considering them). If you read all the answers before ruling out B and C, my answer would be that the probability is .50.

If we were to consider that the choice was made before reading the answers, then the probability would still be the same. This is because in the game show situation, the host knows the answer and will NEVER eliminate the choice that the contestant made. Here for the exam, you can.

I'm definitely interested in setting up a simulation to see how this works out. Please feel free to comment though.

3. Re: Probability on a Multiple Choice exam

Before you read each question you randomly guess.
You do guess before, but you are right in the fact that you might eliminate your initial guess.

4. Re: Probability on a Multiple Choice exam

*bump*

is there anyone that knows how to run a simulation of this? I still feel unclear as to whether or not this helps you or not.