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Thread: Thinking Fast and Slow - Probability question

  1. #16
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    Re: Thinking Fast and Slow - Probability question




    Yep.

    Convert new base rate to odds:
    .8/(1-.8) = 4

    Multiply by likelihood to get posterior odds:
    4*4 = 16

    Convert back to probability:
    16/(1+16) = 0.941
    “In God we trust. All others must bring data.”
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    Re: Thinking Fast and Slow - Probability question

    To my surprise (I'm not a math person) I used an Excel spreadsheet and got both sets of numbers to work:

    .03 (prior probability) * 4 (conditional probability) = .12 .97 (prior probability) * 1 (conditional probability) = .97.

    .12/(.12+.97) = 11


    .08 * 4 = 3.2 .2 * 1 = .2

    3.2/(3.2 + .2) = .941

  3. #18
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    Re: Thinking Fast and Slow - Probability question


    To my surprise (I'm not a math person) I used an Excel spreadsheet and got both sets of numbers to work:

    .03 (prior probability) * 4 (conditional probability) = .12 .97 (prior probability) * 1 (conditional probability) = .97.

    .12/(.12+.97) = 11


    .08 * 4 = 3.2 .2 * 1 = .2

    3.2/(3.2 + .2) = .941

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