hi,

I believe this could make sense. The way I would explain it is thatbthe probability is the number of "successes" divided by the number of possible outcomes, right? If you already had one event, then the number of possible outcome is proportional to that smaller area of the binomial distribution that lies to the left of the value one and the number of successes is proportional to the area of the distribution that lies to the left of the value 2. So, this proportion can easily be a lot larger then 0,06 .

BTW, I just had the exact same question yesterday from a colleague - how probable is that?

regards

rogojel