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    finding probabilty




    Consider a country in which 100, 000 people vote in an election. There
    are only two candidates on the ballot; a Democratic candidate (denoted D) and a Republican
    candidate (denoted R). The country is heavily Democratic, so 80, 000 people go to the polls
    with the intention of voting for D, and 20, 000 go to the polls with the intention voting for R.
    However, the layout of the ballot is a little confusing, so each voter, independently and with
    probability 1/100, votes for the wrong candidate that is, the one that he or she did not
    intend to vote for. (Remember that there are only two candidates on the ballot.)
    How many votes do we expect D to receive?

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    Re: finding probabilty

    Hi! We are glad that you posted here! This looks like a homework question though. Our homework help policy can be found here. We mainly just want to see what you have tried so far and that you have put some effort into the problem. I would also suggest checking out this thread for some guidelines on smart posting behavior that can help you get answers that are better much more quickly.
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    Re: finding probabilty

    Here is my try:

    Since the probability for a person to vote wrongly is 1/100, the # of D votes goes to R is (1/100) * 80000 = 800
    similarly # of R votes to D is (1/100) * 20000 = 200

    so, total D votes would be 80000 - 800 + 200 = 80600

    Can someone help me, if I did it wrong?

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    Re: finding probabilty


    80000 - 800 + 200 is correct... but

    80000 - 800 + 200 is not equal to 80600

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