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Thread: Simple probability

  1. #1
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    Simple probability




    If I have:

    The year of eruption The month of eruption
    1660 July
    1682 August
    1694 April
    1698 January
    1707 July
    1737 May
    1760 March
    1767 October
    1779 July
    1794 June
    1834 August
    1858 May
    1861 December
    1872 April
    1906 April
    1944 March

    What is the probability that that vulcano(Vezuv) will erupt and when it could happen?

    I will answer myself: it is poisson process.
    Last edited by mboricgs; 12-03-2013 at 01:42 AM.

  2. #2
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    Re: Simple probability

    If you have the data like this you may need to consider the issue about sum-quota sampling when estimating the intensity \lambda:

    http://www.stat.nus.edu.sg/~staxyc/spchapt3d.pdf

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    Re: Simple probability



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