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Thread: Poisson probability question

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    Poisson probability question




    1. An enemy force is known to be hiding in one of twenty possible locations. General Staff orders a search to be made by picking a site at random, inspecting it, and then picking the next site to be inspected at random from among the remaining sites and so on. After fifteen sites have been inspected, the search is still unsuccessful. General Staff begins to believe that the enemy has somehow vanished. Is this belief justified? What if there were two enemy groups?

    λ =1/20 =0.05
    P(X=1) = 0.05^1 * e^-0.05/1! = 0.04756 0.04756 *20 = 0.9512 expected # of enemies
    P(X=2) = 0.05^2 * e^-0.05/2! = 0.001189 0.001189 *20 = 0.0238 expected # of enemies

    The chance that there is one enemy is 4.756%
    The chance that there are two enemies is 0.1189%

    Am I using the right gamma value?

  2. #2
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    Re: Poisson probability question


    Can anybody help? Is this right? Is this question really a binomial question?

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