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Thread: Probability of a sequence....

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    Probability of a sequence....




    HI Folks,

    New to the forum. It's nice to find a forum in this area. I hope someone can help me out. My goal is to determine if it is possible to calculate the probabilities of a number of sequence(s) occurring in independent random events (such as a coin toss). So for Eg. If I were playing a game in which only 2 outcomes were possible and I classified one of the events as being a success having a 40% chance of occurring, in a test of 10000 events, could I determine with little error, the probabilities of how many successes occurring consecutively and estimate the maximum consecutive outcomes. On the flip side, is it also possible to determine the probability of the streak ending after a certain run??

    Hoping someone knows this. Thanking you in advance.

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    Re: Probability of a sequence....

    GOOD LUCK GETTING AN ANSWER.

    I tried to get a probability calculation method concerning hidden info encoded within the KJV Bible. They refused to even try.
    True proof of God's existence was found hidden within the Bible, but this has been completely ignored, rejected, or worse, for years on end in the same general way.

    So I had thought, let's bring the argument to an end and do so via a statistical probability analysis of the encoded info.
    However, the "experts" were all convinced that their brains were better at statistical analysis than the use of mathematics is.

    However, their arguments were absolutely hysterical. Sometimes we have a few beers and take another look at their posts and have a good laugh.

    Anyhow, best of luck.
    Last edited by Dason; 06-01-2014 at 12:17 PM.

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    Re: Probability of a sequence....

    Try googling "binomial probability calculator" = )

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    Re: Probability of a sequence....

    @MikCss Thanks for stopping by. Your last question can be answered via the geometric distribution. As for the max run length there are a few suggestions here: http://math.stackexchange.com/questi...rnoulli-trials that seem interesting. There is an analytic solution to that problem but it's not a simple one.

    Alternatively a quick/easy way to go about answering questions like these is via simulation. It's easy enough to simulate 'coin flips' so you could just do that a whole bunch of times and look at the resulting distributions of the quantities you're interested in.

    @RobAbility - If you try to hijack this thread I will have to take action.
    I don't have emotions and sometimes that makes me very sad.

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    Re: Probability of a sequence....


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    Re: Probability of a sequence....


    Thanks Chris. Your reply was marked as spam so wasn't publicly available. I approved it though and it looks relevant. Thanks!
    I don't have emotions and sometimes that makes me very sad.

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