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Thread: Black Swans, non-normal distributions

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    Question Black Swans, non-normal distributions




    I am looking for a reference to a popular science magazine article. The point of it was that in the real world we find populations that are distributed by exponential growth functions and not Gaussian. This means that rare events (“Black swans”) are not as rare as people think or as rare as would be predicted by standard probabilities.

    Can anyone help me?

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    Re: Black Swans, non-normal distributions

    I don't know the exact article, but the person who is most visibly associated with this idea is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, for example in his books "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan." He may or may not have been the author of the article you read. Anyway, Googling his name for a while might turn something useful up.
    “In God we trust. All others must bring data.”
    ~W. Edwards Deming

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    Re: Black Swans, non-normal distributions


    Hi. The best book I can recommend is The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

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