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Thread: Simple Probability

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    Simple Probability




    Years since I have done stats, just want to check I have done this correct:

    If amazon use 3 companies to deliver parcels, Royal Mail, City Link, Fedex.

    Probability of parcel company being used:
    Royal Mail = 0.4
    City Link = 0.1
    Fedex = 0.5

    Probability of parcel company delivering to wrong address
    Royal Mail = 0.01
    City Link = 0.02
    Fedex = 0.03

    What is the chance of a parcel being delievered to the wrong address?

    is it (0.4*0.01) + (0.1*0.02) + (0.5*0.03)?

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    Re: Simple Probability

    That is correct. You are essentially using The Law of Total Probability.
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    Re: Simple Probability


    Great thanks for confirming that probability of parcel being delivered to wrong address is 0.021

    If you know that a parcel has been delivered to the wrong address, to calculate the posterior probability that Royal Mail delivered this, can I just use

    P(A/B) = P(AnB) / P (A)

    = (0.4 * 0.01 ) / 0.021 = 0.19?
    Last edited by calypso; 02-01-2015 at 02:16 PM.

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