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Thread: Basketball shooting percentage - binomial distribution?

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    Basketball shooting percentage - binomial distribution?




    I am interested in studying the probability of team field goal percentage being unusually high. In context, I recently watched a women's college basketball game (UConn vs. SCAR) and observed that the Huskies were shooting a ridiculously high field goal percentage. They made 8/11 (72%) of their 3's, and 31/56 (55%) overall. Both numbers are above their season averages.

    Can this be studied with a binomial distribution? As in what are the chances that they make 8/11 3-pt shots given they were shooting 41% as a team entering the game?

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    Re: Basketball shooting percentage - binomial distribution?

    I am a bit rusty, so please anyone correct me if wrong.

    Let X be number of 3s scored. Then X -bin(11, 0.41)

    Now you are looking for P(X=>8) = 0.034

    P(X=8) = 0.027

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    Re: Basketball shooting percentage - binomial distribution?

    Fun way to apply basic stats to life.

    Lots of other things to think of, which players shooting, competition level, etc. But nice idea.
    Stop cowardice, ban guns!

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    Re: Basketball shooting percentage - binomial distribution?


    Alfa those numbers are spot on and they confirm my argument that such high performance indeed was quite rare. I just needed to confirm that my method was correct

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