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Thread: A little help

  1. #1
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    A little help

    I know that a event with two outcomes such as making a three throw in basketball doesn't necessarily have a probability of 0.50, it could range depending on the persons skill.

    But if you use a coin to generate signals whether the person would make the throw(heads for success tails for miss), would you have a 50% success rate, as if the person success was 70% you would hit it 50 times and failed 30% you would hit it 50 times.

    So they would balance each other out? Is this correct?

    Thanks for any help.

  2. #2
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    Re: A little help

    I must say that I don’t understand what you’re actually asking. If a player has a 70% probability of making a shot while a coin toss has a 50% probability of being a head, how could anything between the two situations “balance out”?

    You could use a series of coin tosses to approximate a situation where a binary outcome is not governed by a 50% probability. For example, you could toss a coin ten times in succession, count how many heads/tails show up, and reckon as a success every combination except 1H9T, 2H8T and 5H5T. That is, you just count how many heads appear in a run of ten tosses, and if it’s not 1, 2 or 5, it’s a success. However, note that this example has success/failure values of 70.02%/29.98%, not exactly 70%/30%, assuming a fair coin.

    To determine a suitable approximation, you will need to play around with the binomial distribution.

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