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Thread: binary choice with fisheries data over time

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    binary choice with fisheries data over time




    Hi all,
    I am new to the forum so please bear with me if I am not following protocol in my post.

    I have fisheries data which is vessel specific. In this particular fishery the season opens on Jan 1st and closes on December 31st. Most vessels fish at the beginning of the season and then exit occurs throughout the season depending on catch rates (which decrease throughout the season), and catch rates in 2 other fisheries (which open in July and August, respectively).

    I wish to estimate a model that predicts the probability that a vessel will stay in the fishery, or exit in a given time period. The time period I am thinking of using is a week.

    My initial thoughts are to estimate a binary choice logit model based on the random utility framework. The choice in each time period for each vessel would be to stay in the fishery or exit the fishery.

    I have several years of data for each vessel and I know when they exited the fishery, individual catch rates in the fishery, and average catch rates in alternative fisheries.

    Can binary logit be used in this situation? I am trying to avoid using a binary fixed effects or random effects model......

    Thanks!

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    Re: binary choice with fisheries data over time

    You could do a structurel economic model based on John Rust Bus engine replacement problem. This model uses a
    dynamic optimisation problem (admittedly infinite horizon) in a logit framework.

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    Re: binary choice with fisheries data over time

    Perhaps you could take a grouped data approach for a duration model ... modelling the probability of exit in each discrete period as logit/probit ... Campolieti has written a nice phd thesis using non-parametric bayesian estimation bom

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    Re: binary choice with fisheries data over time

    Thanks for giving my question so much thought JesperHP. Your second suggestion looks promising- I am looking at the thesis now.

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    Re: binary choice with fisheries data over time


    Is there any way in which it would be possible for you to share the data since I have a personal interest in setting up a dynamic logit model if time allows for it?

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