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Thread: Expected return

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    Expected return




    Hello, it has been a couple years since my last statistics course and i need help with a report i am compiling for work.
    I have a list of 500 or so possible events, each with its own expected return and probability of occurring.
    i am trying to find the total expected return given that:
    any random combination of 2 events(including duplicates) can occur at a time and the event with the higher expected return will be chosen from each combination of 2.
    here is a small sample(10 of the 500) of what i am working with.
    event ER probability
    1 -0.100433 0.00060719
    2 -0.13517 0.00060719
    3 -0.317783 0.00063359
    4 -0.172032 0.00060719
    5 -0.344326 0.00063359
    6 -0.353382 0.00063359
    7 -0.209173 0.00060719
    8 -0.351841 0.00063359
    9 -0.265886 0.00063359
    10 -0.124191 0.00063359

    is there a way to do this on excel. if it was only a few events i could list all of the combinations, chose the best outcome etc... but there are way too many combinations for that.

    i know i didnt explain it very well so i thought of a word problem that might make it easier to understand what i am trying to do.
    Suppose you are playing a game of heads up texas hold 'em poker (1 vs 1) however instead of each player receiving one hand, where your odds of winning would be 50/50, you receive two hands and must chose which one to play, discarding the other, before the flop. your opponent still only receives one hand. what would be your new odds of winning?

    any help is appreciated, thank you
    Last edited by moorenr; 12-16-2015 at 09:07 PM.

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