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Thread: (Bayesian) Frequency and Likelihood Ratio Substitution

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    (Bayesian) Frequency and Likelihood Ratio Substitution




    I've been trying to learn Bayesian statistics "on my own" and part of how I study is by reading on its application in Court. Recently I've been reading this paper "Trial by Probability" and I don't understand how a likelihood ratio was substituted with a frequency. It would be nice if someone explained how we're allowed to do the substitution. I don't have formal training in stat outside highschool so if it should be intuitive, I apologize in advance. Thanks!

    This is the problem text from the paper:
    Spoiler:

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    Re: (Bayesian) Frequency and Likelihood Ratio Substitution


    Nevermind. I eventually figured it out once I did the problem on paper. Turned out I needed to make safe assumptions and rephrasing of frequency in terms of probability of finding the trait in a random (innocent) person in the population.

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