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Thread: Winning chance

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    Winning chance

    Would welcome statistical advice to maximize my winning chances with this game :

    A store gives out cards with four rub-off squares. Underneath each square is a Y or N (invisible through paper), presumably 1 N per card, randomly distributed. We are allowed to rub off only 3 of 4 squares, and if 3 Y’s appear, we win a prize.

    For ca. 50 chances to play the game, what is most logical way to proceed?

    Should I just scratch off the same 3 squares for all cards? Or rotate my selection systematically? Or randomly?

    Are there any other considerations?

    Any time a N shows, game is over and nothing won.

    Thanks in advance for your input.

    Best regards,


    P.S. Since original post on 6/20, lots of views, but still no replies. The cards expire in a couple of days, so must start scratching soon in order to claim any prize! I have some follow-up questions and comments :

    1. Is there really no easy solution on how to maximize winning probability?

    2. Are conditional probabilities involved?

    3. Is this a variant of the Monty Hall problem?

    Sorry if I posted in the wrong place or unknowingly made any mistake that annoyed readers!
    Last edited by Wondering; 06-28-2016 at 05:46 AM. Reason: time running out

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