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Thread: What does a mean probability mean?

  1. #1
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    What does a mean probability mean?

    Hi all.

    If each case in a dataset is assigned a probability of a certain event having occurred (based on their own individual data) and I calculate an average probability of the event having occurred, does the average probability equal the estimated proportion of cases in which that event occurred?

    So if I have 10 people, each assigned a probability of having read a book, and the average probability is .06, does that mean an estimated 6% of people have read a book? or why not?

    On the one hand it seems weird. On the other hand if every child has a .5 chance of being female (before birth), we would expect aout half of children to be female.

  2. #2
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    Re: What does a mean probability mean?

    Hmm. Where exactly does the probability come from and how was it calculated?

    Also do you have random sample or how does you sample look compared to the source population.
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