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Thread: conditional probability

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    Unhappy conditional probability




    For a combined ELISA-Western blot blood test for HIV positive status, the sensitivity P(positive test |HIV) is about 0.999 and the specificity P(negative Test | not HIV) is about 0.9999.

    Consider a high risk group in which 10% are truly HIV positive. Construct a tree diagram to summarize this diagnostic test

    I don't even know how to start. I've watched so many youtube videos and I'm still lost

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    Re: conditional probability

    Quote Originally Posted by RachelCrowley View Post
    For a combined ELISA-Western blot blood test for HIV positive status, the sensitivity P(positive test |HIV) is about 0.999 and the specificity P(negative Test | not HIV) is about 0.9999.
    If you know this information, then don't you also know P(negative test|HIV) and P(positive test|not HIV)?
    "I have discovered a truly remarkable proof of this theorem which this margin is too narrow to contain." Pierre de Fermat

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    Re: conditional probability


    This particular question reeks of Bayes' Theorem. See the Wikipedia page for a useful example...

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