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Thread: Calculating probabilities over time?

  1. #1
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    Calculating probabilities over time?


    I'm looking to learn how to calculate probability of an event happening over time. The easiest way to express it is in a dice analogy.

    I would like to be able to calculate the probability of rolling a certain number, a given number of times in a total number of rolls -- does not have to be successive.

    In other words, what is the probability of rolling a 6, 30 times in 90 rolls? Then I actually want to calculate the same probability using a 30-sided die.

    I've been doing research online to find out how to calculate this kind of scenario, but I'm not having much luck. Most of the dice discussion revolves around combinations of various dice, but that's not what I'm trying to understand. I'm only looking to calculate the outcome of a single die, but over many subsequent rolls.

    If anyone knows of a site that describes how to calculate this kind of thing, please let me know!

    And thanks for taking the time to read this.

  2. #2
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    Re: Calculating probabilities over time?

    Sounds like you want to look into the binomial distribution.
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