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Thread: Predicting Score Based On Historical Performance

  1. #1
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    Predicting Score Based On Historical Performance

    Hi all,

    You will have to forgive my very basic understanding of probability, but any help would be appreciated.

    Basically I have a system that assigns a rating to an athlete based on a number of parameters. This rating is an indicator of how good a performance was on any given day of competition, the higher the rating the better the performance.

    I was wondering if there was any formula that could be used to predict the rating of the athletes next performance. I have attached an excel spreadsheet detailing an example of what I am talking about. Column F is the date of the competition, column G is the athletes rating on that day.

    Is there any excel formula that would predict this ?

    Any help would be great thanks.
    Attached Files

  2. #2
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    Re: Predicting Score Based On Historical Performance

    Basically, no such formula exists.

    One you thing you could do is make a line or scatter plot and add a linear trendline. This will show you how much better or worse the athlete is getting over time.

    However, there is no guarantee that the trend will continue over time. Performance may just as well be a random process, and the trendline an arbitrary fit over random data.

    There are more sophisticated models for time series analysis, which are especially useful if there are recurring patterns in the data (e.g., weekly, monthly, etc.), but I think that may be too complex for your purposes.

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