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Thread: Average Probablities over a quarter

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    Average Probablities over a quarter




    Hi all,

    I have the following probability data for a medical event, I need to find what was the overall probability for these three month?

    1- Jan. Observed Mortality/Expected Mortality : 80%
    2- Feb. Observed Mortality/Expected Mortality : 75%
    3- Feb. Observed Mortality/Expected Mortality : 70%

    Is it a correct way to calculate the overall probability over these 3 months by averaging them? (80%+75%+70%)/3= 75%.

    Thanks for your assistance.

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    Re: Average Probablities over a quarter


    Hi, welcome.

    No, that will only work when the numbers per month are the same.

    As an extreme counter-example:

    1. Jan, 4 out of 5 died
    2. Feb, 3 out of 4 died
    3. March 700 out of 1000 died

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