# Thread: Probability of Events in Equations

1. ## Probability of Events in Equations

Hello,

This may be an easy question, but I would like to know how to incorporate the probability of an event in a linear (or non linear) equation.

For example, say I have the following linear equation: Y = (100X * W) + 20T + 10M - 50.

I collect data from an experiment, and find values X, W, T and M - no problem, I can now find Y. However, I found that W only has a 25% chance of occurring for any given experiment.

Can I (or how do I) incorporate this probability into my equation to produce a more accurate model?

Thanks!

2. ## Re: Probability of Events in Equations

I don't understand why knowing the probability that an event occurs would change the model?

3. ## Re: Probability of Events in Equations

It would not change the model. It would change the distribution of the response. I would use Monte Carlo simulation. Just specify the distribution or probabilities of your different inputs, run the simulation and evaluate the distribution of the ouput. Follow up with a sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs drive the most variation in output.

4. ## The Following User Says Thank You to Miner For This Useful Post:

mjgarrin (12-12-2016)

5. ## Re: Probability of Events in Equations

Thanks for the tips. I wasn't sure if I was able to do that or not. I was using the following model Y = (100X * [W*0.25]) + 20T + 10M - 50 to represent the 25% probability of W, but you were right, this changes my response. I removed this, and performed the monte carlo simulation and found the error in my model to be about 0.4%.

You mentioned performing sensitivity analysis...how do I do this? I cannot seem to find any simple tutorial online to perform this?

Thank you.

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