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Thread: Probability question, I think

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    Probability question, I think




    Hoping someone can tell me the kind of question I'm trying to answer, and then point me at an online calculator or formula for such problems, so I don't have to bother you guys anymore For clarity, this is not homework, I'm old and haven't had a homework assignment since the 1980's.

    Say there's a 38% chance of me moving out of state in the next 5 years.
    Say there's a 27% chance my sister will move out of state in the next 5 years.
    Say there's a 4% chance my brother will move out of state in the next 5 years.
    Say there's a 2% chance my friend will move out of state in the next 5 years.

    What's the probability that 1 or more of us will move out of state in the next 5 years? What's this kind of thing called? I looked at binomial probability, and it didn't seem to fit...flipping a coin 20 times doesn't fit this problem, because there are different probabilities involved, whereas the proverbial coin is always 50/50.

    38% x 27% x 4% x 2% seems to be the chance that we'll all move, so I'm guessing there is something more involved...

    Help, and thanks for any education!
    Last edited by vicG; 01-13-2017 at 02:14 PM.

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    Re: Probability question, I think

    If you want the probability that at least one will move, the easiest approach is to find the probability that no one moves, and subtract it from 1.
    So p = 1 - 62%x...x...x... = ?

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    vicG (01-16-2017)

  4. #3
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    Re: Probability question, I think


    Thanks, katxt, that makes excellent sense!

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