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    Basic Statistics

    I am sure this is a basic problem that is easily solvable, however, I have not been in a Statistics class in a little over 31 years and have all but forgotten the basic concepts.

    Here is my question:
    You have 15 treasure chests. In 9 of those, you will find some money and the other 6 are empty. You get to make as many picks as you can until you get 3 empty chests. What is the probability that you pick 3 straight empty chests to end the "game"?

    I think the statistical probability would be relatively low, but just not sure of how to calculate it. If you were to play this "game" a second time, what is the probability of picking 3 empty chests two times in a row?

    This recently happened to me and I find it amazing that it actually happened in the game I was playing. Any percentages that anyone could supply would be greatly appreciated!!

    Matt

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    Re: Basic Statistics

    hi,
    I think it would be (3/15)*(2/14)*(1/13)=1/455 . Not high but not outrageously low either.

    regards

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    Re: Basic Statistics

    Quote Originally Posted by rogojel View Post
    hi,
    I think it would be (3/15)*(2/14)*(1/13)=1/455 . Not high but not outrageously low either.

    regards
    Assuming 3 empties in the first 3 tries - how about (6/15)*(5/14)*(4/13) or about 4% for a single game?

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    Re: Basic Statistics

    When you say "What is the probability that you pick 3 straight empty chests to end the game" does that mean that you pick 3 empty chests right away at the start? Or could you pick 1 treasure chest and then get 3 empty? So is the question "what is the probability of the first 3 chests you pick being empty" or is it "what is the probability that you choose 0 or more treasure chests and then choose 3 empty chests to end the game"?
    I don't have emotions and sometimes that makes me very sad.

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    Re: Basic Statistics

    Dason,

    I'm sorry I wasn't clear. The answer to your question is "what is the probability of the first 3 chests you pick being empty". Basically, you make 3 picks and all 3 chests are empty ending the game with $0.00.

    Thanks in advance for your help!

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