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Thread: No Direction for Project

  1. #1

    No Direction for Project




    Hello, everyone. And thank you all for what you do. I seek your council as I succumb to the truth that my teacher is not going to help me. Even this morning after sitting down with him, here I am, lost.

    He gave us a project.

    1. Flip 2000 coins, calculate probability that it takes to get H ten times in a row.
    2. Flip 2000 coins (can use above data), group them by 200, provide a chart using classical probability.

    That is all. Period. No help from this point. So much for "intro" to statistics.

    I am not asking for you to do the work. I can do it. I have flipped the coins, built the following chart:

    http://prntscr.com/f2w2ly

    Now, he wants classical prob, so:

    P(H) = .50
    P(T) = .50
    P(H x 10 in a row)
    *This is as far as I get. I did get 10 H in a row on the 7th series of 200, flips 10 through 22. But he will not help me resolve the calculation for this, or even guide me to the right approach:
    http://prntscr.com/f2w5wx


    Now for my calculations; I crunched the numbers and got this:
    http://prntscr.com/f2w493
    ^^^
    To use classical probabiliity I take the above formula and plug in the H%?
    ^^^
    Outcome: P(Every H in 10 flips) = (.48)^10 for first 200,

    P(Every H in 10 flips) = (.495)^10 for second group of 200... then so forth and so on for all ten groups.

    Am I on the right track?

    I need direction. I am lost. He will not help me, so I am seeking your council. Please help?!

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    Re: No Direction for Project

    It would be helpful if you posted the exact wording of the question you were given. The probability that you get H ten times in a row anywhere in the 2000 flips? That you get H ten times in a row in each group of 200 flips? The question you presented in not clear enough to determine the actual assignment.

  3. The Following User Says Thank You to Berley For This Useful Post:

    mermaid_princess (05-02-2017)

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    Re: No Direction for Project

    Quote Originally Posted by Berley View Post
    It would be helpful if you posted the exact wording of the question you were given. The probability that you get H ten times in a row anywhere in the 2000 flips? That you get H ten times in a row in each group of 200 flips? The question you presented in not clear enough to determine the actual assignment.
    This is all we have:
    1. Flip 2000 coins, calculate probability that it takes to get H ten times in a row.
    2. Flip 2000 coins (can use above data), group them by 200, provide a chart using classical probability.

    I think I caused confusion in the 7th series of 200 statement I made, I apologize for that. I was looking at the data after I broke it down into groups. That calculation is the probability of getting 10H in a row in 2000 flips. I started what I thought is the process, but he refuses to help me. He says I must reach out to others as so he will not hold my hand.

    The calculation should use classical probability.

    The second one is a chart with calculations (classical probability) broken into groups of 200, then calculating each set. I then have to put that data into a bar chart. I am not sure if I am approaching these calculations accurately. I just want to give him what he wants so I can move one to my programming final assignment.

    I hope I clarified this enough. As you can see he doesn't give us much, but he wants everything done 110% in return. I want to scream!

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    Re: No Direction for Project

    So today the class basically complained that he isn't helping us, so he posted this:

    >>>Project is due in paper format (think term paper), maximum 4 pages (minimum 2)
    >>>Don't overthink it, just give me what you find/observe
    >>>One student picked gummy bears; she will submit a paper stating how she opened 15 packages, counting the probability of each based on her observation (she chose to count red and blue and state her observation on those two colors (she kept it simple))
    >>>She should not overthink it, I don't want you doing massive amounts of work, just fill two pages
    >>>You all honestly do not need my help. Put on paper what you did, give me the probabilities and the following items:
    >>>1. What you did (the gummy bears/red/blue), 2. Your observation (probability of each color in each bag), 3. The big output broken down into smaller output (red/blue probabilities observed Bag 1, observed Bag 2... to Bag 15)
    >>>Many of you flipped coins. Tell me "how"/"what" you flipped, what you observed, chart it on a large scale, broken into a smaller scale (a bar graph or pie chart can put out these observations)
    >>>Some of you did Jelly Beans. Do not give me EVERY color. You are overworking yourself. Pick two, proceed as listed above.
    >>>Stop stressing. Just follow this guideline. You will prevail.

    So it looks like I was on the right path. I need to start with the probability (classical) of 10 Heads in a Row out of 2000 flips. Then to put my observation onto paper with a minimum of two pages and no more than four while putting into an Excel table the probability on the ten groups of 200 coin flips and then chart the entire 2000 flips.

    He tells us stop stressing. I want to scream!

    Is there any hope for me? Does anyone understand this? I am on the right track, right?

    -MP

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    Re: No Direction for Project


    It sounds like he wants you to literally describe what you did and how you did it. Explaining is actually a great learning technique -- if you have to explain something, you have to think about it in great detail. Whenever I'm having trouble understanding the details, I start trying to work out an explanation for the process and it helps me figure out what I'm doing.

    I would recommend being very detailed: You decided to look at the probability of coin tosses. You created a new Excel file and ... (explain how you programmed it to calculate the 2000 flips). Show the table. Then you broke the 2000 flips into 10 groups of 200 flips. Explain how you did that. Show the results. To calculate the probability of 10 flips in a row being the same, you used the formula ... when you plug in the specifics from your problem, the formula looks like ...

    Etc.

    Discuss results. Do a chart. (Hint: a 100% stacked bar chart might be a good choice for showing the results of each of your 10 groups.)

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