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Thread: "Lifetime risk"

  1. #1
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    "Lifetime risk"




    I need a bit of help understanding this concept.

    I have a paper published in Lancet that show data on the short-term and lifetime risks for developing congestive heart failure in men and women.

    It says, for men over the age of 40 there is a 21.0% lifetime risk and 0.2% 5-year risk.

    So does this imply that of a given population of men over the age of 40 years - 20% would develop the condition? Because I have just looked at hospital data for heart failure in our local town's popualtion and the rate I get is 14 per 10,000 for 45-64 year olds. So I assume I must be interpreting the lifetime risk number incorrectly. Plz explain if you can...thx

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    Do your/hospital numbers identify those who might develop congestive heart failure or those who have died from congestive heart failure?

    The hospital numbers do not say anything about ages beyond 65. I would expect age to go hand-in-hand, almost exponentially, with negative health effects.

  3. #3
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    "The hospital numbers do not say anything about ages beyond 65"

    Yeah that's true I suppose. So on average one might still expect that 20% of 40+ year olds would develop congestive heart failure.

    "I would expect age to go hand-in-hand, almost exponentially, with negative health effects."


    And this is indeed what you generally see - an exponential increase in the prevalence of morbidities with age - and a greater slope among certain ethnic groups.

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