prediction

  1. L

    VAR model for multivariate time series

    so using a model var with the package 'vars' for R, in this way: model_var <- VAR(my_data, lag.max=10) roots(model_var) pred <- predict(model_var, n.ahead=15) if my_data is stationary there are no problems. But, if my_data is not stationary, I differencing all the time series in...
  2. S

    Linear Regression help :D

    Hey guys i was having trouble doing my econometrics homework so i'm going to see if anyone here can help me do this question :D So we have to assume that the data we are given can be described by the simple linear regression model: yi=B1+b2xi + ei where B1 and B2 are beta signs and ei...
  3. C

    comparing linear models to test for statistical similarities

    I am trying to describe plant growth over time using accumulated temperature (dd) as my independent variable and the plants 'growth stage' (gs) as my dependent variable. The shape of the data is sigmoid and I have three different sets of data for different geographic areas. I decided to use a...
  4. M

    Forward stepwise regression procedure: application to panel data

    I am in the process of evaluating the importance of some factors in predicting stock returns. In this context, I would like to implement the forward stepwise regression methodology. My dataset is comprised of 13,000 securities with monthly data from 1984 to 2012. Since this is my first...
  5. O

    Variables that are Both Predictors and Response Variables

    I have been reading about variable/feature selection algorithms. All of the algorithms that I have seen presume that there is a clear distinction between predictive and response variables. However, I have some variables that could be either. I would like to analyze a large set of variables...
  6. Y

    Population genetics: prediction of allele frequency distribution

    Is there a software or a R package that does a simulation of spatial distribution of alleles? I'm interested in how a distribution of alleles of functional loci is shaped by a pattern of environmental variables, such as temperatures and water quality. I have data on geographical patterns of...
  7. D

    Molding Time in SAS

    How can I build a time variable into my model? I am building a model in SAS and I want to use time of day as a way to predict Y. "Are people more willing to pay for something based on what time of day it is?" I expect people are more willing to pay for something at different parts of the day...
  8. K

    Markov Chain Prediction with unknown states

    down vote favorite 2 I want to make a prediction of the next state based on a training and test dataset. So I split my data into a train and test set and calculate the MLE on the train set and want to predict the next state on the test dataset. The problem now is, that there can be...
  9. J

    model usage for prediction

    Hi everone, I am facing a twofold problem. First, can i cross sectional model be used for prediction? Mine is a sales regression for 2011 and I want to predict the changes in the 2012, so its a log log model. Second, I choose a buch of explanatory variables like gdp p.c, population, HDI, IEF...
  10. M

    Predictive modeling challenge for SPSS experts.........!

    Urgent! Need Help to build best Model for the problem Hi, I have a raw attribute data for 430 restaurants. Training Data: The set contains information about 430 restaurants. The target variable for every row is the aggregated weekly footfall named ‘Total’. I need to build their model...
  11. M

    Model building using Training data and predoction of Target set with test data

    URGENT ! need help to build the Predictiive Model Hi, Need some help to solve the problem using right s/w(SPSS or execl) and approach . I have a raw attribute data for 430 restaurants. Training Data: The set contains information about 430 restaurants. The target variable for every row...
  12. K

    How many measurements needed to distingish between two outcomes?

    I have a historical dataset of about 500 measurements. Datapoints that turned out to indicate A or B, each have a distribution from which I computed mean and std. If I plot a histogram of these measurements, I have two semi-overlapping gaussian distributions. Those measurements that indicated A...
  13. S

    Make predictions with standardized coefficients

    Hello, I've been struggling with a problem since a while, hopefully someone here could help me out. The problem: I want to use the coefficients from a previous research to make a prediction equation. The problem is that the paper only lists the standardized (beta) coefficients of the...
  14. L

    Predicting answers to yes/no questions based on stimulant use

    Hi I don't like signing up to forums just to ask questions, makes me feel like a bad person. Usually I just lurk about till I find an answer but it ain't worked this time. Oh well, I'll try to contribute in the future if I can. Anyway the title might sound exciting but it's really not. I...
  15. R

    Factor & Discriminant Analysis

    From a large data set, I've created several groupings of individuals based on factor analysis. In the future, if I want to predict which group an individual fits into based on the same questions, should I use the factor loadings I have, or do a discriminant analysis (or logistic regression - the...
  16. G

    developing a statistical prediction rule for success

    Hi, My boss is looking for me to analyze data that we have an past projects and develop a "formula" that will tell how likely a future project is to be a success. We have defined what a success is, so looking at the past data I can find statistics on when projects are successful. Now comes...
  17. B

    How to get prediction for a variable in WinBUGS?

    Dear all, I am a new user of WinBUGS and need your help. After running the following code, I got parameters of beta0 through beta4 (stats, density), but I don't know how to get the prediction of the last value of h, the variable I set to NA and want to model it using the following code...
  18. alfred

    Collect answers and determine probability

    Hello! I'm trying to figure out a method to predict the most probable answer taking into account previous answers collected in a database. Practically, I have 5 questions. For each question I present 2 possible answers (either A or B). People answer to the 5 questions and their answers are...
  19. T

    Simple Question. Prediction intervals in R.

    Hi, I'm using R and I've fitted a seasonal Arima model to a time series. I wish to compute a prediction for the next 12 values of the time series with 95% confidence interval. Can someone advise me what command to use? Also could someone point me to where I might find out the answers to similar...
  20. K

    Using a correlation as a measure of how well heuristic predicts outcome?

    Hello, I am preparing an experiment in which I would like to test a heuristic. This heuristic predicts how well certain facts are known. The values returned by the heuristic are between 0 and 1. I was thinking of testing this heuristic by asking people if they know a particular fact and...