Hi guys, this is my first post. (So do lower your expectations)

I'm currently writing a thesis that deal with sports probabilities and part of the project will require me to find a indicator for the performance of national soccer/football teams.

However, I need to adjust this indicator to account for home advantage.

The ratings system that I briefly describe below have some drawbacks.

Does anyone know of another soccer/football ratings system for national teams? If not, is the proposed adjustment for the ELO rating below intuitive?

http://www.constantinou.info/downloads/papers/pi-ratings.pdf (Pi-ratings system)

A ratings system known as the pi-ratings system provides both a separate rating for teams playing at home and away. However, its determination appears a bit too complicated for my liking. For eg. there is the existence of a learning rate i.e. essentially the weight placed on newly acquired information. Although, it could be set up. On the otherhand, it appears to be quite comprehensive.

I much prefer the ELO ratings system with the algorithm provided on eloratings.net. Various journal articles have reaffirmed its ability to forecast matches. I proposed to my supervisor that I could adjust the ELO ratings to account for home advatange by adding K*We = K / (10^([-dr+100]/400) + 1), where dr is the average difference across teams participating in any tournament and 100 adjusts for the home advantage that was initially subtracted in the algorithm. However this appears unreliable and has limited intuition (as my supervisor mentioned.)

http://eloratings.net/system.html

I'm currently writing a thesis that deal with sports probabilities and part of the project will require me to find a indicator for the performance of national soccer/football teams.

However, I need to adjust this indicator to account for home advantage.

The ratings system that I briefly describe below have some drawbacks.

Does anyone know of another soccer/football ratings system for national teams? If not, is the proposed adjustment for the ELO rating below intuitive?

http://www.constantinou.info/downloads/papers/pi-ratings.pdf (Pi-ratings system)

A ratings system known as the pi-ratings system provides both a separate rating for teams playing at home and away. However, its determination appears a bit too complicated for my liking. For eg. there is the existence of a learning rate i.e. essentially the weight placed on newly acquired information. Although, it could be set up. On the otherhand, it appears to be quite comprehensive.

I much prefer the ELO ratings system with the algorithm provided on eloratings.net. Various journal articles have reaffirmed its ability to forecast matches. I proposed to my supervisor that I could adjust the ELO ratings to account for home advatange by adding K*We = K / (10^([-dr+100]/400) + 1), where dr is the average difference across teams participating in any tournament and 100 adjusts for the home advantage that was initially subtracted in the algorithm. However this appears unreliable and has limited intuition (as my supervisor mentioned.)

http://eloratings.net/system.html

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