Calculate Probability of a value greater than knowing the Mean, St Deviation...?

#1
I need to Calculate the probability of get 20000 or more with the following statistics;

Statistics: Forecast values
Trials 5,000
Base Case 0.00
Mean 14,755.75
Median 10,993.67
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 10,519.67
Variance 110,663,505.00
Skewness 1.45
Kurtosis 4.40
Coeff. of Variability 0.7129
Minimum 888.61
Maximum 53,829.77
Range Width 52,941.17
Mean Std. Error 148.77

I think it's 19.17% but I need to know how to get it with a Formula, also if it's not too much I need to create a 95% Confidence for the true probability to exceed 20000.

Thank You!
 
Last edited:

BGM

TS Contributor
#2
If you only have those statistics without the actual data, I think somehow you can combine those information to obtain a certain bound on that probability (like Markov's inequality) but that will not be exact.

If you got the actual data, a possible estimates will be the proportion of data exceed 20000 just like the empirical CDF. Thus in this case you can also use the confidence interval for proportion.