I made a simulation that looks like it is 40% correct by chance and changes if the ratio changes (25% if 50:50), but was told flat out that chance is 50% by a friend who is better at math than me (because of the 2 response options). Who is right?

- Thread starter AlexanderC
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I made a simulation that looks like it is 40% correct by chance and changes if the ratio changes (25% if 50:50), but was told flat out that chance is 50% by a friend who is better at math than me (because of the 2 response options). Who is right?

80/100 = 4/5 of answers are true, 1/5 of answers are false.

If the subject knows this, then their best guessing strategy is to guess true 4/5 of the time and false 1/5 of the time.

If the subject knows this, then their best guessing strategy is to guess true 4/5 of the time and false 1/5 of the time.

The expected rate of correct answers for your proposed strategy is 0.8*0.8+0.2*0.2 = 0.68 .

With kind regards

Karabiner

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