# Conditional Probability of several events

#### ahmed_shinawy

##### New Member
Hallo Everyone,
I have a question in Conditional Probability and I would appreciate if you could help me solve it.
I have the probability of of the Hourly temperature of the day. if my temperature varies from -3,-2,-1,0.....+9 and I know the probability for each temp. every hour through the day (for example that probability that the temp is +1°C at 12:00 am is 13% and at 01:00 am is 15% and so on for 24 hours.

How could I know the probability that the hourly temp. will be:
a) the same for two successive hours?
b) Increase by +1 degree in the next hour
c) decrease by -1 degree in the next hour

#### mvernengo

##### New Member
stocastic process, markov chain with no absortion state
a) the same in two successive hours and b)&c) +/- anything else... the state matrix is needed and also is supposed to be known "i know the probability for each temp"
the calculations are straigh foward but too long to put them here, too many states and not all of them provided
i put the link of a book (hope it work) - chapter 11 is about markov chain and its worth every minute of the effort plus the entire book is a panacea

#### ahmed_shinawy

##### New Member
Hallo mvernengo,
Thank you very much for your reply.
I read the chapter you send it to me, but still couldn't get it.
I am going to explain more what I am trying to do.
attached you will find the probabilities for temperature through the whole day. Based on this probabilities I would like to generate the temperature for one year putting in consideration the differeance between the generated hourly temperature be -1 or 0 or +1 Degree.
Thank you in advance.