I apologize if my question was an insult in any way. I am just very interested in some of the math. If it’s not a statistic, what would be the correct term in regards to probability percentage?
Given the two events are independent: 25%. Since an election happens every four years.
Though it is called Covid-'19' for a reason.
However, what is the probability of a novel strain of corona virus - a little more knowledge is needed there. But if you are interested in this topic the following book has pararells:
I don't think its 25 percent. It might not show up for a hundred years. To do this type of analysis you have to know the probability distribution, which is essentially impossible for a new disease.
1 if you sum over enough years. Let Pr( pandemic and election ) be Pr( A ) in demorgans law as given in previous post. The assumes that years and independent of course. basic probability rule
'everything possible happens eventually' as the maxim goes.