Covid-19& presidential election analytics

[Syler]

Question for statisticians: what is the mathematic probability of covid-19’s arrival in the US on a Presidential election year?

 

[staassis]

I am very sad, time after time seeing people who think they came up with an original and topical data analysis question: Covid-19....

There is too little data. Statistics is the science about what to do with data. One needs data.

 

[Syler]

I apologize if my question was an insult in any way. I am just very interested in some of the math. If it’s not a statistic, what would be the correct term in regards to probability percentage?

 

[hlsmith]

Given the two events are independent: 25%. Since an election happens every four years.

Though it is called Covid-'19' for a reason.

However, what is the probability of a novel strain of corona virus - a little more knowledge is needed there. But if you are interested in this topic the following book has pararells:

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/42283303-the-doomsday-calculation

 

[noetsi]

I don't think its 25 percent. It might not show up for a hundred years. To do this type of analysis you have to know the probability distribution, which is essentially impossible for a new disease.

 

[fed2]

1 if you sum over enough years. Let Pr( pandemic and election ) be Pr( A ) in demorgans law as given in previous post. The assumes that years and independent of course.
basic probability rule

'everything possible happens eventually' as the maxim goes.