Thanks for taking a minute to check this out. It's been a long time since my college Stats class and I don't have the chops to do this anymore. I need help settling a debate with a friend regarding COVID and the probability of contracting COVID after being fully vaccinate. Not trying to be political. Just looking for the numbers.
Here are the basic assumptions based on the CDC's numbers for California:
CA population: 39,510,000
Total current contagious cases: 34,000 (this is based on an average of 2417 new cases/day and a contagion time frame of 14 days. We are also assuming these people are out and about in the population, not staying at home.)
Assuming I have daily contact with 10 random people.
Assuming I have a vaccine efficacy rate of 90%.
What are my daily odds of actually contracting COVID?
I know there are a lot more actual variables, but I didn't want to get bogged down in that. Just wanted a rough idea.
I appreciate any time and input.
Best Regards,
John
Here are the basic assumptions based on the CDC's numbers for California:
CA population: 39,510,000
Total current contagious cases: 34,000 (this is based on an average of 2417 new cases/day and a contagion time frame of 14 days. We are also assuming these people are out and about in the population, not staying at home.)
Assuming I have daily contact with 10 random people.
Assuming I have a vaccine efficacy rate of 90%.
What are my daily odds of actually contracting COVID?
I know there are a lot more actual variables, but I didn't want to get bogged down in that. Just wanted a rough idea.
I appreciate any time and input.
Best Regards,
John