Election 2020

#1
This is a continuation of thread...

With South Carolina in the books -- for Biden, big-time -- and Super Tuesday on deck, let's revisit the implied probabilities:

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Good ol' Joe has made a significant gain in implied probability -- up 5X since we last checked -- but Bernie remains the heavy favorite in this horse race to Milwaukee and beyond.

UPDATE (4/8): Mission accomplished, Bernie..!!!
 
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#2
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

When posting information like these, it may be beneficial to cite where some of the numbers come from (e.g., 538 and provide the direct URL; you calculated them based on ??), so we verify and weight the source.

Thanks.
 
#5
Wow, the point has been missed.

The calculations above are based solely on odds from Betfair, which I like because they do bet-matching, which means the most in real time. I'm not sure where the explanation should begin ... please advise. Preferably, algorithmically.
 
#8
That's close enough to an algorithm, I guess, so...

The numbers are solely based on the odds shown, in this case from Betfair.

Odds-and-probability have a monatomic relationship in zero-sum events, where with n competitive outcomes:

Odds.1 x Prob.1 = Odds.2 x Prob.2 = ... = Odds.n x Prob.n
NOTE: 'Odds' is the profit on a $1 bet, or the decimal equivalent of fractional odds.

You will note that this is the case in all the probability charts that I've posted, as it should be.

See also: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nonlinear-odds-to-probs-conversion.73716/#post-215277
 
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#9
Whoa, that was a Super Tuesday for Joe Biden, the Delaware Destroyer who shredded the field.

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Of course, this is just a snapshot in time of a projection calculated from interdependent ever-changing abstractions, which are based on the whims of the American public, both in voting and betting* ... anything can happen from here, and probably will. For some perspective, see here.

Reminder: Don't shoot the messenger.
* Technically, most of wagers are probably unAmerican, so to speak, what with our arcane US gambling laws.
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What a difference a few hours make in rough-and-tumble American politics ... with Bloomberg now out of the race, $500M lighter, here's an update on the implied probabilities from Betfair odds:

Dem.2020,3-4-20.1.jpg

This level of Joementum seems a bit much and perhaps a tad premature ... but maybe now Biden can get his old boss to put in a good word or two on his behalf. No?*

* Yes!!! ... and you know the Big O endorsement (4/14) is solid when it's the only remaining choice.

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Joementum has infected the odds on the general Presidential Election 2020. Down by a substantial margin in probability to the incumbent a week or so ago, the septuagenarians are now in a feverish dead heat.

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#10
Even with the unprecedented societal lockdown and cancellation of events of all kinds -- by worldwide government mandate -- the always-essential prediction market is still functioning on future events.

President Trump has opened up a sizable lead over challenger Biden in implied probability in Election 2020:

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There has been some speculation that the President may cancel the election … perhaps we can get a betting line on that action too. It’s not like we have any sports to watch and wager on. [Coronavirus self-quarantine tip: Julia Child's old ‘French Chef’ videos are hilarious. Watch the linked video from the beginning.]

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Within just a few short days, the race tightens up ... Joementum?

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Joementum may be slowing in implied probability, but perhaps we shouldn't reade anything into that since Biden's still polling well (5/3), and you know how meaningful that metric is.

Prez.5-3-20.jpg

While still minor, Hillary Clinton’s implied probability has been boosted, perhaps by this innovative possible strategy (5/2), if Biden takes an early retirement from the campaign. Interestingly, strongmen Cuomo and Ventura are neck-and-neck.
 
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#11
The Democrats' chances of winning the White House will surely be enhanced with the right choice for Vice President.

Dem.VP,4-22-20.jpg

The combined implied probability of POC women (Harris, Warren, Abrams, M.Obama, Cortez Mastro, Demings, Gabbard, and Duckworth) is almost 70% about 56%.

The combined implied probability of individuals with XY-chromosomes breaks 2%.
 
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#15
With nationwide chaos raging, it seems that Joe Biden's vast skillset and experience are just the ticket to lead us forward: Joe takes a solid lead over the Bible-toting incumbent in the latest odds.

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-- By party --
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Joe broke quarantine and emerged from his Delaware basement, crossing statelines for the first time in months into war-zone Philly for a unifying woke-up speech on these troubling times.

Ironically, during this Coronavirus pandemic -- that is especially fatal to senior citizens -- unmasked Joe forcefully disclosed that he has a severe problem breathing (6/2), a classic COVID-19 symptom, which is especially odd since the ability to articulate words is indeed proof that one is, in fact, breathing ... or at least that's what Science! shows, which Joe touts as one of his many strong suits. Perhaps a pre-existing heart condition and/or high levels of chemical substances in his blood stream were a factor in his confusion. [UPDATE: The CDC will be counting George Floyd's death as a COVID-19 fatality; 6/4.]

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Biden's innovative subterranean campaign-in-place strategy is certainly still working its magic in the race for ...y'know...the thing...

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In implied probability of election, Biden now leads Trump by over 25% ... while just five weeks ago, Trump led by almost 13%, so it's a whopping 38% swing (not that these non-nonlinear calculations are recommended for capturing the true essence of the numbers). Turbulent times, indeed.

A heavyweight Democratic insider wants to continue the sheer genius of Biden’s underground campaign strategy (6/10) until Election Day 2020, providing a nifty inverse approach to Trump being Trump.

* via Zoom *
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46th President ...?!?
Additionally, The Economist’s complex projection model has Trump’s chance of reelection at less than 20% (6/12). The article concludes with the consistent viewpoint on Joe’s campaign/quarantine strategy: “What Mr Biden needs to do is run out the clock.”
UPDATE: The Economist now projects that Trump’s probability of election has sagged to only about 10% (8/9, updated daily).

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A summary chart of Biden's improbable resurgence (using PredictIt's cents-priced odds; lead increased to 57:43 (6/16) ... which translates to implied probabilities of 63.7% Biden and 36.3% Trump):

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#16
The Biden campaign's ground-breaking subterranean strategy -- facilitating the avoidance of tough questions (6/26) -- extends his party's lead in odds-implied probability, doubling the President's, for Election 2020.

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What an ironic twist history holds on the origins of the Democratic and Republican Parties … as the statues of one party’s historical icons are torn down in their own cities, nationwide, you’d think that they’d consider a simple name-change, if they wanted to eliminate traces of that horrid legacy (7/23).

In line with this odds-to-implied-probability aspect, Biden has been polling well, as Trump is seen as fumbling responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and social-justice pandemonium (6/24). Then there’s more abstract considerations, such as a Trump supporter noting that “Part of you just feels icky voting for him…" Further abstract perspectives include...

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With President Trump being accused of appearing sympathetic to unsavory types (6/28) and then may or may not having been briefed on a possible ‘Russian bounty’ on American troops in Afghanistan* (6/30), Joe Biden extends his lead in odds-implied probability.

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* Where a grand total of two Americans have been killed YTD ... Fake News York Times?
 
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#17
This is a continuation of thread: Nonlinear odds-to-probs conversion

Drudge links to an odds-implied probability study (7/1) that utilizes the conventional linear odds-to-probs conversion, where each candidate’s American-format odds are used to estimate their probability independently, and then all the candidates’ probabilities are normalized to sum to 100%.

With the nonlinear odds-to-probs determination, Joe Biden has over a 74% probability in Election 2020.

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The combined probabilities of the Republican candidates – Trump, Pence, Haley and The Rock(?) – total a meager 24.2%.

On the other hand, a Stony Brook professor projects that Trump has a 91% chance of reelection (7/2), claiming to have a model that’s been correct over 90% of the time, looking back over 100 years … but he doesn’t share his crystal-ball metrics, other than Biden placing 5th in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire back in February, as well as his being correct in predicting Trump's election in 2016, as opposed to everyone else.

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Kanye West jumps into the race, and clocks the same probability as Hillary Clinton. Biden's slidin' somewhat in probability, but remains way ahead.

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Kanye’s odds jumped by a factor of 10X – from 500/1 to the 50/1 above -- after getting supportive tweets from tech moguls Musk and Cuban (7/5). In fact, the music celebrity garnered the majority of bets in the market since throwing his hat in the ring. Pundits suggest that a third-party run by Kanye could strip votes from the Biden campaign (7/5). Then again, perhaps Biden could ask Kanye to be his VP candidate [no odds offered on that action yet], though he's not the right gender.

It would be interesting to see a betting line on who’s President in, say, 2022: The coming 'Biden coup' (7/6). More crazytalk on the 'COVID coup' (7/17).

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The betting odds and their implied probabilities on Election 2020 are surprisingly stagnant, perhaps tracking one party's innovative campaign strategy, preferring to keep the focus on the 'referendum' on their uber-active opponent, who "is not a legitimate candidate", despite being the incumbent. Heck, things appear to be going swimmingly for the challengers, so why even bother to introduce any uncertainty into the proceedings ... like quaint, outmoded concepts such as publicly debating policy, as that could inject messy uncertainty (8/2), along with providing memorable entertainment.

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NOTE: In the interest of reducing uncertainty, the parties' odds are used as the metric here, rather than the odds of specific individuals -- enough with this ‘identity politics’! -- as in the Time of COVID-19, anything can happen. Or not happen, of course.

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Drudge headlines a Reuters article on implied probabilities from Ladbrokes odds on Election 2020: Betting markets favor Biden over Trump, but odds narrow in U.S. race (8/6). Reuters utilizes the conventional linear odds-to-probs conversion, and so understates Biden’s advantage (see above), claiming only a 61% probability for Biden and 36% for Trump.

Ladbrokes head of political betting notes that 1) Biden's surge in odds and implied probability were concurrent with BLM-inspired protests, and that 2) betting markets are "overwhelmingly dominated by men", and that may provide a bias towards Trump, who generally polls better with men than women.

Furthermore, as a show of his robust Electoral strength, Biden’s odds-implied chances were only minimally impacted by the recent airing of his innovative views on cognitive testing (8/5) and the diversity of his core constituency (8/6). Then again, from the Big Picture standpoint, the same mysterious forces – bewildering to our Coastal Elites -- are still at play now (8/2), as they were in Election 2016.
 
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