Election 2020

#1
This is a continuation of thread...

With South Carolina in the books -- for Biden, big-time -- and Super Tuesday on deck, let's revisit the implied probabilities:

Dem.2020,3-1-20.jpg

Good ol' Joe has made a significant gain in implied probability -- up 5X since we last checked -- but Bernie remains the heavy favorite in this horse race to Milwaukee and beyond.

UPDATE (4/8): Mission accomplished, Bernie..!!!
 
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#2
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

When posting information like these, it may be beneficial to cite where some of the numbers come from (e.g., 538 and provide the direct URL; you calculated them based on ??), so we verify and weight the source.

Thanks.
 
#5
Wow, the point has been missed.

The calculations above are based solely on odds from Betfair, which I like because they do bet-matching, which means the most in real time. I'm not sure where the explanation should begin ... please advise. Preferably, algorithmically.
 
#8
That's close enough to an algorithm, I guess, so...

The numbers are solely based on the odds shown, in this case from Betfair.

Odds-and-probability have a monatomic relationship in zero-sum events, where with n competitive outcomes:

Odds.1 x Prob.1 = Odds.2 x Prob.2 = ... = Odds.n x Prob.n
NOTE: 'Odds' is the profit on a $1 bet, or the decimal equivalent of fractional odds.

You will note that this is the case in all the probability charts that I've posted, as it should be.

See also: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nonlinear-odds-to-probs-conversion.73716/#post-215277
 
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#9
Whoa, that was a Super Tuesday for Joe Biden, the Delaware Destroyer who shredded the field.

Dem.2020,3-4-20.jpg

Of course, this is just a snapshot in time of a projection calculated from interdependent ever-changing abstractions, which are based on the whims of the American public, both in voting and betting* ... anything can happen from here, and probably will.

For some perspective, see: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nfl-postseason-probabilities.74650/#post-219031.

Reminder: Don't shoot the messenger.
* Technically, most of wagers are probably unAmerican, so to speak, what with our arcane US gambling laws.
-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

What a difference a few hours make in rough-and-tumble American politics ... with Bloomberg now out of the race, $500M lighter, here's an update on the implied probabilities from Betfair odds:

Dem.2020,3-4-20.1.jpg

This level of Joementum seems a bit much and perhaps a tad premature ... but maybe now Biden can get his old boss to put in a good word or two on his behalf. No?*

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Joementum has infected the odds on the general Presidential Election 2020. Down by a substantial margin in probability to the incumbent a week or so ago, the septuagenarians are now in a feverish dead heat.

Prez.odds,3-14-20.jpg
* Yes!!! ... and you know the Big O endorsement (4/14) is solid when it's the only remaining choice.
 
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#10
Even with the unprecedented societal lockdown and cancellation of events of all kinds -- by worldwide government mandate -- the always-essential prediction market is still functioning on future events.

President Trump has opened up a sizable lead over challenger Biden in implied probability in Election 2020:

Prez.odds,4-21-20.jpg


There has been some speculation that the President may cancel the election … perhaps we can get a betting line on that action too. It’s not like we have any sports to watch and wager on. [Coronavirus self-quarantine tip: Julia Child's old ‘French Chef’ videos are hilarious. Watch the linked video from the beginning.]

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Within just a few short days, the race tightens up ... Joementum?

Prez.4-24-20.jpg
-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Joementum may be slowing in implied probability, but perhaps we shouldn't reade anything into that since Biden's still polling well (5/3), and you know how meaningful that metric is.

Prez.5-3-20.jpg

While still minor, Hillary Clinton’s implied probability has been boosted, perhaps by this innovative possible strategy (5/2), if Biden takes an early retirement from the campaign. Interestingly, strongmen Cuomo and Ventura are neck-and-neck.
 
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#11
The Democrats' chances of winning the White House will surely be enhanced with the right choice for Vice President.

Dem.VP,4-22-20.jpg

The combined implied probability of POC women (Harris, Warren, Abrams, M.Obama, Cortez Mastro, Demings, Gabbard, and Duckworth) is almost 70% about 56%.

The combined implied probability of individuals with XY-chromosomes breaks 2%.
 
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#15
With nationwide chaos raging, it seems that Joe Biden's vast skillset and experience are just the ticket to lead us forward: Joe takes a solid lead over the Bible-toting incumbent in the latest odds.



-- By party --
Prez.6-3-20,2.jpg

Joe broke quarantine and emerged from his Delaware basement, crossing statelines for the first time in months into war-zone Philly for a unifying woke-up speech on these troubling times.

Ironically, during this Coronavirus pandemic -- that is especially fatal to senior citizens -- unmasked Joe forcefully disclosed that he had a severe problem breathing (6/2), a classic COVID-19 symptom, which is especially odd since the ability to articulate words is indeed proof that one is, in fact, breathing ... or at least that's what Science! shows, which Joe touts as one of his many strong suits. Perhaps a pre-existing heart condition and/or high levels of chemical substances in his blood stream were a factor in his confusion. [UPDATE: The CDC will be counting George Floyd's death as a COVID-19 fatality; 6/4.]
 

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