Election 2020

#1
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#2
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

When posting information like these, it may be beneficial to cite where some of the numbers come from (e.g., 538 and provide the direct URL; you calculated them based on ??), so we verify and weight the source.

Thanks.
 
#5
Wow, the point has been missed.

The calculations above are based solely on odds from Betfair, which I like because they do bet-matching, which means the most in real time. I'm not sure where the explanation should begin ... please advise. Preferably, algorithmically.
 
#8
That's close enough to an algorithm, I guess, so...

The numbers are solely based on the odds shown, in this case from Betfair.

Odds-and-probability have a monatomic relationship in zero-sum events, where with n competitive outcomes:

Odds.1 x Prob.1 = Odds.2 x Prob.2 = ... = Odds.n x Prob.n
NOTE: 'Odds' is the profit on a $1 bet, or the decimal equivalent of fractional odds.

You will note that this is the case in all the probability charts that I've posted, as it should be.

See also: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nonlinear-odds-to-probs-conversion.73716/#post-215277
 
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#9
Whoa, that was a Super Tuesday for Joe Biden, the Delaware Destroyer who shredded the field.

Dem.2020,3-4-20.jpg

Of course, this is just a snapshot in time of a projection calculated from interdependent ever-changing abstractions, which are based on the whims of the American public, both in voting and betting* ... anything can happen from here, and probably will.

For some perspective, see: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nfl-postseason-probabilities.74650/#post-219031.

Reminder: Don't shoot the messenger.
* Technically, most of wagers are probably unAmerican, so to speak, what with our arcane US gambling laws.
-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

What a difference a few hours make in rough-and-tumble American politics ... with Bloomberg now out of the race, $500M lighter, here's an update on the implied probabilities from Betfair odds:

Dem.2020,3-4-20.1.jpg

This level of Joementum seems a bit much and perhaps a tad premature ... but maybe now Biden can get his old boss to put in a good word or two on his behalf. No?*

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Joementum has infected the odds on the general Presidential Election 2020. Down by a substantial margin in probability to the incumbent a week or so ago, the septuagenarians are now in a feverish dead heat.

Prez.odds,3-14-20.jpg
* Yes!!! ... and you know the Big O endorsement (4/14) is solid when it's the only remaining choice.
 
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#10
Even with the unprecedented societal lockdown and cancellation of events of all kinds -- by worldwide government mandate -- the always-essential prediction market is still functioning on future events.

President Trump has opened up a sizable lead over challenger Biden in implied probability in Election 2020:

Prez.odds,4-21-20.jpg

There has been some speculation that the President may cancel the election … perhaps we can get a betting line on that action too. It’s not like we have any sports to watch and wager on. [Coronavirus self-quarantine tip: Julia Child's old ‘French Chef’ videos are hilarious. Watch the linked video from the beginning.]

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Within just a few short days, the race tightens up ... Joementum?

Prez.4-24-20.jpg
-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Joementum may be slowing in implied probability, but perhaps we shouldn't reade anything into that since Biden's still polling well (5/3), and you know how meaningful that metric is.

Prez.5-3-20.jpg

While still minor, Hillary Clinton’s implied probability has been boosted, perhaps by this innovative possible strategy (5/2), if Biden takes an early retirement from the campaign. Interestingly, strongmen Cuomo and Ventura are neck-and-neck.
 
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#11
The Democrat's chances of winning the White House will surely be enhanced with the right choice for Vice President.

Dem.VP,4-22-20.jpg

The combined implied probability of POC women (Harris, Warren, Abrams, M.Obama, Cortez Mastro, Demings, Gabbard, and Duckworth) is almost 70% about 56%.

The combined implied probability of individuals with XY-chromosomes breaks 2%.
 
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