Election 2020

#1
This is a continuation of thread...

With South Carolina in the books -- for Biden, big-time -- and Super Tuesday on deck, let's revisit the implied probabilities:

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Good ol' Joe has made a significant gain in implied probability -- up 5X since we last checked -- but Bernie remains the heavy favorite in this horse race to Milwaukee and beyond.

UPDATE (4/8): Mission accomplished, Bernie..!!!
 
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#2
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

When posting information like these, it may be beneficial to cite where some of the numbers come from (e.g., 538 and provide the direct URL; you calculated them based on ??), so we verify and weight the source.

Thanks.
 
#5
Wow, the point has been missed.

The calculations above are based solely on odds from Betfair, which I like because they do bet-matching, which means the most in real time. I'm not sure where the explanation should begin ... please advise. Preferably, algorithmically.
 
#8
That's close enough to an algorithm, I guess, so...

The numbers are solely based on the odds shown, in this case from Betfair.

Odds-and-probability have a monatomic relationship in zero-sum events, where with n competitive outcomes:

Odds.1 x Prob.1 = Odds.2 x Prob.2 = ... = Odds.n x Prob.n
NOTE: 'Odds' is the profit on a $1 bet, or the decimal equivalent of fractional odds.

You will note that this is the case in all the probability charts that I've posted, as it should be.

On methodology, see also.
 
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#9
Whoa, that was a Super Tuesday for Joe Biden, the Delaware Destroyer who shredded the field.

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Of course, this is just a snapshot in time of a projection calculated from interdependent ever-changing abstractions, which are based on the whims of the American public, both in voting and betting* ... anything can happen from here, and probably will. For some perspective, see here.

Reminder: Don't shoot the messenger.
* Technically, most of wagers are probably unAmerican, so to speak, what with our arcane US gambling laws.
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What a difference a few hours make in rough-and-tumble American politics ... with Bloomberg now out of the race, $500M lighter, here's an update on the implied probabilities from Betfair odds:

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This level of Joementum seems a bit much and perhaps a tad premature ... but maybe now Biden can get his old boss to put in a good word or two on his behalf. No?*

* Yes!!! ... and you know the Big O endorsement (4/14) is solid when it's the only remaining choice.

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Joementum has infected the odds on the general Presidential Election 2020. Down by a substantial margin in probability to the incumbent a week or so ago, the septuagenarians are now in a feverish dead heat.

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#10
Even with the unprecedented societal lockdown and cancellation of events of all kinds -- by worldwide government mandate -- the always-essential prediction market is still functioning on future events.

President Trump has opened up a sizable lead over challenger Biden in implied probability in Election 2020:

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There has been some speculation that the President may cancel the election … perhaps we can get a betting line on that action too. It’s not like we have any sports to watch and wager on. [Coronavirus self-quarantine tip: Julia Child's old ‘French Chef’ videos are hilarious. Watch the linked video from the beginning.]

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Within just a few short days, the race tightens up ... Joementum?

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Joementum may be slowing in implied probability, but perhaps we shouldn't reade anything into that since Biden's still polling well (5/3), and you know how meaningful that metric is.

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While still minor, Hillary Clinton’s implied probability has been boosted, perhaps by this innovative possible strategy (5/2), if Biden takes an early retirement from the campaign. Interestingly, strongmen Cuomo and Ventura are neck-and-neck.
 
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#11
The Democrats' chances of winning the White House will surely be enhanced with the right choice for Vice President.

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The combined implied probability of BIPOC women (Harris, Warren, Abrams, M.Obama, Cortez Mastro, Demings, Gabbard, and Duckworth) is almost 70% about 56%.

The combined implied probability of individuals with XY-chromosomes breaks 2%.
 
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#15
With nationwide chaos raging, it seems that Joe Biden's vast skillset and experience are just the ticket to lead us forward: Joe takes a solid lead over the Bible-toting incumbent in the latest odds.

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-- By party --
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Joe broke quarantine and emerged from his Delaware basement, crossing statelines for the first time in months into war-zone Philly for a unifying woke-up speech on these troubling times.

Ironically, during this Coronavirus pandemic -- that is especially fatal to senior citizens -- unmasked Joe forcefully disclosed that he has a severe problem breathing (6/2), a classic COVID-19 symptom, which is especially odd since the ability to articulate words is indeed proof that one is, in fact, breathing ... or at least that's what Science! shows, which Joe touts as one of his many strong suits. Perhaps a pre-existing heart condition and/or high levels of chemical substances in his blood stream were a factor in his confusion. [UPDATE: The CDC will be counting George Floyd's death as a COVID-19 fatality; 6/4.]

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Biden's innovative subterranean campaign-in-place strategy is certainly still working its magic in the race for ...y'know...the thing...

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In implied probability of election, Biden now leads Trump by over 25% ... while just five weeks ago, Trump led by almost 13%, so it's a whopping 38% swing (not that these non-nonlinear calculations are recommended for capturing the true essence of the numbers). Turbulent times, indeed.

A heavyweight Democratic insider wants to continue the sheer genius of Biden’s underground campaign strategy (6/10) until Election Day 2020, providing a nifty inverse approach to Trump being Trump.

* via Zoom *
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46th President ...?!?
Luckily, the hologram doesn’t have legs,
or else
“losing a step” would matter (9/8).

Additionally, The Economist’s complex projection model has Trump’s chance of reelection at less than 20% (6/12). The article concludes with the consistent viewpoint on Joe’s campaign/quarantine strategy: “What Mr Biden needs to do is run out the clock.”
UPDATE: The Economist now projects that Trump’s probability of election has sagged to only about 10% (8/9, updated daily).

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A summary chart of Biden's improbable resurgence (using PredictIt's cents-priced odds; lead increased to 57:43 (6/16) ... which translates to implied probabilities of 63.7% Biden and 36.3% Trump):

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#16
The Biden campaign's ground-breaking subterranean strategy -- facilitating the avoidance of tough questions (6/26) -- extends his party's lead in odds-implied probability, doubling the President's, for Election 2020.

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What an ironic twist history holds on the origins of the Democratic and Republican Parties … as the statues of one party’s historical icons are torn down in their own cities, nationwide, you’d think that they’d consider a simple name-change, if they wanted to eliminate traces of that horrid legacy (7/23).

In line with this odds-to-implied-probability aspect, Biden has been polling well, as Trump is seen as fumbling responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and social-justice pandemonium (6/24). Then there’s more abstract considerations, such as a Trump supporter noting that “Part of you just feels icky voting for him…" Further abstract perspectives include...

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With President Trump being accused of appearing sympathetic to unsavory types (6/28) and then may or may not having been briefed on a possible ‘Russian bounty’ on American troops in Afghanistan* (6/30), Joe Biden extends his lead in odds-implied probability.

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* Where a grand total of two Americans have been killed YTD ... Fake News York Times?
 
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#17
This is a continuation of thread: Nonlinear odds-to-probs conversion

Drudge links to an odds-implied probability study (7/1) that utilizes the conventional linear odds-to-probs conversion, where each candidate’s American-format odds are used to estimate their probability independently, and then all the candidates’ probabilities are normalized to sum to 100%.

With the nonlinear odds-to-probs determination, Joe Biden has over a 74% probability in Election 2020.

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The combined probabilities of the Republican candidates – Trump, Pence, Haley and The Rock(?) – total a meager 24.2%.

On the other hand, a Stony Brook professor projects that Trump has a 91% chance of reelection (7/2), claiming to have a model that’s been correct over 90% of the time, looking back over 100 years … but he doesn’t share his crystal-ball metrics, other than Biden placing 5th in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire back in February, as well as his being correct in predicting Trump's election in 2016, as opposed to everyone else.

It would be interesting to see a betting line on who’s President in, say, 2022: The coming 'Biden coup' (7/6). More crazytalk on the 'COVID coup' (10/17).

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The betting odds and their implied probabilities on Election 2020 are surprisingly stagnant, perhaps tracking one party's innovative campaign strategy, preferring to keep the focus on the 'referendum' on their uber-active opponent, who "is not a legitimate candidate", despite being the incumbent. Heck, things appear to be going swimmingly for the challengers, so why even bother to introduce any uncertainty into the proceedings ... like quaint, outmoded concepts such as publicly debating policy, as that could inject messy uncertainty (8/2), along with providing memorable entertainment.

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NOTE: In the interest of reducing uncertainty, the parties' odds are used as the metric here, rather than the odds of specific individuals -- enough with this ‘identity politics’! -- as in the Time of COVID-19, anything can happen. Or not happen, of course.

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Drudge headlines a Reuters article on implied probabilities from Ladbrokes odds on Election 2020: Betting markets favor Biden over Trump, but odds narrow in U.S. race (8/6). Reuters utilizes the conventional linear odds-to-probs conversion, and so understates Biden’s advantage (see above), claiming only a 61% probability for Biden and 36% for Trump.

Ladbrokes head of political betting notes that 1) Biden's surge in odds and implied probability were concurrent with BLM-inspired protests, and that 2) betting markets are "overwhelmingly dominated by men", and that may provide a bias towards Trump, who generally polls better with men than women.

Furthermore, as a show of his robust Electoral strength, Biden’s odds-implied chances were only minimally impacted by the recent airing of his innovative views on cognitive testing (8/5) and the diversity of his core constituency (8/6). Then again, from the Big Picture standpoint, the same mysterious forces – bewildering to our Coastal Elites -- are still at play now (8/2), as they were in Election 2016.

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With Biden’s savvy choice of his running mate and the virtual DNC convention in full swing, the odds and implied probabilities remain solidly in his favor.

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Assuming she can get her paperwork in order, the VP-hopeful and potential President-in-waiting -- Kamala Harris -- brings her vast experience and nuanced skillset to the Democratic ticket, all of which well complement Biden’s capabilities and his decades-long track record with notable consistency (8/22).

In other news, we just can't catch a break (8/18)...

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Due to his silence-on-the-violence ... polling and focus groups reflect that Biden’s chances may be slipping, since he’s not “reading from the same teleprompter” as CNN talking heads (8/25; also, an earlier CNN host on-air coordination). However, betting odds still show a commanding lead for Biden's team, with implied probabilities of 63.5% Democrat and 35.4% Republican (Betfair, 8/26; decimal odds: Dem 1.67, Rep 2.2, Ind 41).
UPDATE (8/27): A day makes a difference, as the race tightens ... betting odds now have implied probabilities of 57.2% Democrat and 41.8% Republican (Betfair decimal odds: Dem 1.73, Rep 2.0, Ind 41). CNN kvetching and the broadcast strategy of the RNC Convention may have played roles in dampening Biden's support, but that's certainly debatable. [WAIT!!! … Joe Biden has come out against “needless violence” (8/27), but doesn’t elaborate what violence is actually needed for justice ... perhaps this?]​
 
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#18
Despite promising benevolent policy for Americans’ own good – such as weighing in on the side of prudence in our ongoing mask debate -- Biden continues slidin’ in odds-implied probability, and the Democratic and Republicans Parties are now deadlocked in the Election 2020 race for the White House.

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As earlier noted, in the interest of simplicity and consistency, Betfair odds have been used as the metric on this thread, as they offer bet-matching. Other London oddsmakers on Oddschecker still have the Dems with a modest lead, with none having the GOP as the favorite (see below; 5 of 14 betting houses have even odds).

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In capturing this diversity of opinion, Real Clear Politics is clearly keeping it real, regarding politics, as the race tightens (updated daily; RCP uses the conventional linear odds-to-probs conversion, rather than nonlinear conversion, but the result difference is minor around even odds).

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Here's a look at the RCP Average over the past five months...

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Of course, these ephemeral numbers are abstract derivations … but, just perhaps, the always-controversial 4D-chess Trumpian strategy is paying off (8/31; old-fashioned polling on ‘approval’ – the ultimate abstract ephemera – is the relevant metric used here, 8/30).

Q: Coincidence, correlation or causation? (8/31)

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NOTE: All-knowing Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has deemed that this innovative study is “nonsense, and the analysis behind it is lacking any sort of empirical anchor and is otherwise hopelessly confused.”​

UPDATE (9/2): The Real Clear Politics composite of implied probabilities -- (linearly) derived from betting odds on Election 2020 -- now has Trump at 49.9%, with Biden at 49.7%, presumably due to an apparent significant shift in projected Black American support. Polls now show 28% of African Americans leaning towards Trump … compared to his garnering only 8% of the 2016 Black vote, with his “fall from grace” as a cultural icon, becoming “Public Enemy #1”. Word out.

UPDATE (9/4): Biden briskly bounces back a bit in RCP Average probability -- Biden at 50.5% and Trump at 48.8%. -- probably since ... c'mon, can you imagine that guy as President..?!?

UPDATE (9/5): After reports surfaced of Trump allegedly not speaking-well-of-the-dead American troops back in 2017-18, experts in military and foreign-affairs -- Melania Knauss and 'seething' Joe Biden -- weigh in on the controversy. The unearthing of these comments has oddly not impacted Trump’s odds-implied probability, with Biden maintaining his slight lead in the RCP Average: Biden 50.4% and Trump 48.9% ... perhaps it’s just déjà vu all over again: 'Don Voyage' (2015, more here).

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In an effort to reinvigorate his base, Joe Biden conveys a crystal-clear succinct message (8/31) … America needs to understand the stakes, and how things work around here, from the national to the local level. But making an effort to assure Americans about our future may not even be required, as the Democrats could always just mail-it-in, despite of what we see on Election Night, Tuesday, November 3rd (9/1), along with employing sundry creative simultaneous distractions (9/4, Conspiracy alert) for the American public, traumatized and weary ... even when they try to take a break from the malaise and mayhem, Americans are prevented from having a beer and placing a bet at the local dive bar (9/1).

Surpassing his predecessors' Presidential campaign endorsements -- Hillary Clinton (70 signers) and fellow-laureate Barack Obama (76, in 2008) -- a whopping 81 American Nobel Prize winners publicly back Biden 2020, in writing (9/2), perhaps reflecting Joe’s longstanding hands-on interest in manifestations of Nature Science. This impressive show-of-solidarity within the pencil-necked geek Science community will surely be undermined by its egregious under-representation of women and BIPOC.
 
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#19
As bourgeois democracy has got to go, and “Donald Trump can only be an intolerable glitch in the screen” of their master plan ... left-leaning wealthy folks preferring Global Governance organized the Transition Integrity Project (TIP, 8/28), playing simulated ‘war games’ of four election scenarios, three of which finally get Orange Man Bad out of the Oval Office (from Wikipedia):
  1. Game One: An ambiguous win by Biden. The first game investigated a scenario in which the outcome of the election remained unclear from election night and throughout gameplay.
  2. Game Two: Clear Biden Victory. The Trump Campaign team again attempted to federalize the National Guard to end further vote counting and called on supporters to turn out in large numbers. The Biden Campaign established a bipartisan transition team and mobilized supporters to ensure vote counting was completed thoroughly. In this scenario, Biden won outright in the Electoral College and the popular vote.
  3. Game Three: Clear Trump Win. The third scenario posited a comfortable Electoral College victory for President Trump — 286-252 — but also a significant popular vote win—52% - 47%--for former Vice President Biden.
  4. Game Four: Narrow Biden Win. The final scenario explored a narrow Biden win where he leads with less than 1% of the popular vote the day after the election, and is predicted to win 278 electoral votes.
[NOTE: Of course, “An ambiguous win by Trump” scenario in the TIP game is unthinkable, beyond consideration ... due to mail-in ballots, the popular vote count, Joe's popularity with government employees (federal, state and local), and other Reasons. In Game Three: Clear Trump Win, his Electoral count will need to be beyond the margin-of-lawyer.]​

Despite not having any real-life Trump supporters on *his* cosplay team in this exercise, the study found that:

Team Trump was consistently more ruthless than Team Biden – more willing to ignore existing democratic norms, to make use of disinformation, to deploy federal agencies to promote Trump’s personal and electoral interests, and to engage in intimidation campaigns.”​
[Hey, TIP guys and gals, project much?]​

The study’s organizer helpfully encourages Biden supporters to “take to the streets” if they don’t get what they rightfully deserve, but “nonviolently”, if you were wondering about the fieriness peacefulness of said protests. It certainly sounds like this Election mess is gonna be a total sh*tshow here in America, the beacon of the Free World ... well then, that’s exactly WHY we need Global Governance.
......
UPDATE: Republicans can also do their part for the wise forward-thinking globalists..!!! It’s a ‘bipartisan’ effort on the Transition Integrity Project (9/3), exploring Election 2020 scenarios in an effort to ensure what’s best for America: Trump out of the White House ... at noon, on January 20th, 2021. You see, when it comes to the United States ... globalists prefer to deal with a single political entity, that speaks with one voice: the Uniparty. It's convenient that we already have one-party journalism to cover all the proceedings, keeping us properly informed (9/14). Forward!

And here’s the beauty of it all, hiding in plain sight:
If you talk openly and often about a forceful transition of power, it can NOT be a conspiracy (9/4). It then will be more a simple I-told-you-so, just another mere self-fulfilling prophecy, those things that happen all the time when you have 'vision' ... right?

Operating on a TIP:
With a name like Fight Back Table, this progressive Zoom group certainly isn’t shy about their upcoming tactics, if things don’t transpire to their liking in Election 2020 (9/8).​

This Obama Administration official and law-school pal is playing key roles in the TIP cosplay and impending “Color Revolution” for regime change (9/9).
UPDATE (10/16): Biden and his compatriots have experience in a range of overseas “Color Revolutions”, so why not apply their craft here at home?​

......
Concerned about a possible future backlash from disgruntled Americans if this conspiracy natural chain-of-events plays out, just as projected? Well, don’t worry … the Department of Homeland Security has that potential ‘extremist scenario’ already covered (9/4, more here and also here), and has identified a domestic group that poses a threat “more significant than the immediate danger from foreign terrorists.
UPDATE: This topic is continued here.

Having a hard time making sense of it all?

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Wishful thinking?
The Biden campaign wildly overstates the number of US military deaths due to COVID (9/9; commentary here).​
The mayhem and violence probably won’t end even if Biden is elected, since “revolution doesn’t care about elections” (9/10).​
A lip-slip sneak-peak at our future? ... and both names on the ticket agree, in this nicely coordinated campaign-communication effort (9/15).​

Y’know, it’s “almost as if the party of chaos … the one whose powerful ideologues run the media, the mobs, and the deep state..” might be up to something (9/12), and “we’ve already seen what ‘mostly peaceful’ unrest looks like.” Perhaps we should just expect the worst (9/14), for a number of reasons. Heck, the post-election preview snippets are all around nowadays (10/19).
 
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#20
With a history of inciting rage, derangement, and violence, the divisive President and his supporters need to be ruthlessly crushed by the GloboCap/Biden juggernaut.

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...

History repeating itself? Mother Russia’s turbulent times, 1900-1917: Suicide of the Liberals (Oct 2020)

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Much easier to understand than turbulent Russian socio-political history … a helpful simplification of classes within a society (9/20):
  1. Ruler (3% of population),
  2. Genius (12%, i.e., facilitates things for the Rulers), and
  3. Peasant (85%, i.e., all other).
Flashback (2018): Trump compromises on the SCOTUS selection process.

What’s alleged certainly seems damning (9/23), but who believes international-intrigue dossiers anymore?

A pessimist could suggest that Civil War 2.0 is on the horizon (9/26), looking to reboot America, but with now-compromised software. A troubling sign: a growing number of Americans feel that it is “legitimate to use violence to advance their political goals” … from a mere 8% of both Democrats and Republicans back in late 2017, to now over 30% of both parties (10/8).

Rush-hour political chain-yanking: Hollywood-inspired ‘TRUMP’ sign pops up on mountainside above California freeway (10/7) … the work of Sabo,that LA-based prankster, perhaps..?

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Follow-the-Money Dept (10/9): A few weeks before the Election ... the Pelosis make a sizable investment in Crowdstrike, the DNC-tied cybersecurity firm behind the Russiagate fiasco threat to national security. Hmmm, insider trading? ... though the angle is unclear.

Internationally, Trump loses Islamist support -- Taliban denies endorsing Donald Trump (10/11) -- while garnering another Nobel Peace Prize nomination (yawn).

Domestically, doubting crazytalk on the possibility of an old-fashioned military takeover, post-election ... Coup who? (10/9)

Left turn: ‘Toxic masculinity’ and ‘white fragility’ in the military? Coup too … Trump as Yeltsin, post-election? (10/17)
 
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