With President Trump out of the hospital and back in the saddle, let’s revisit the odds-implied probabilities ...
Smarkets is now joined by
Betfair and four other betting houses in providing odds on Election 2020.

RCP uses the linear odds-to-probs conversion in determining the average implied probability: 61.8% for Biden, and 37.0% for Trump. These
linearly-derived percentages can be corrected into
nonlinear probabilities with the simple formula, for two-outcome events (
see post):

This algorithm translates RCP’s linear probabilities into the proper nonlinear odds-to-probs: about
74% for Biden, and
26% for Trump … or a
2.8X advantage in likelihood of election (this is calculated from the average of six inputs, not just Smarkets, as the above post).
UPDATE (10/8): While there is some
disagreement on the relative performances of Harris and Pence in the VP Debate (10/8.
more here), the Harris-Biden ticket continues to show strength in odds-implied probability: The
RCP Average's (corrected) probabilities are now
77.1% for Biden and
22.9% for Trump ... a 3.4X advantage.
Then again, the Trump campaign has been here before, at the same juncture -- in 2016 -- but then even more so ... see below a chart on RCP’s probability of a Trump victory in both 2016 and 2020 (linearly derived, so
overstate the underdog’s implied probability) plotted against the number of days until the Elections.
.

NOTE: Just before the 2016 Election, RCP's linear probability for Donald Trump was about 13%, which had converted to a nonlinear probability of only 2.2% ... which translated to more than a 44X advantage for Hillary Clinton in odds-implied probability.
-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------
If, as was forecast as a definite possibility by the Democrats' star-studded, uber-credible
Transition Integrity Project, Trump refuses to leave office, literally, after his expected Electoral defeat,
The New York Times mulls whether to involve the United Nations in his removal:
America May Need International Intervention (10/7;
Flashback, Election 2000).
During cosplay of a post-Election 2020 simulation – paralleling the acclaimed
Transition Integrity Project --
The New Yorker’s
Jeffery Toobin enjoys on-camera personal stimulation, gets suspended (10/20), but he apparently is “too valuable a commodity” to keep him down for long:
Vice reported on Monday that the
Zoom call, which was described as an "election simulation," featured Toobin's New Yorker colleagues Jane Mayer, Masha Gessen, Andrew Marantz, Jelani Cobb, Evan Osnos, Sue Halpern and Dexter Filkins playing various roles including President Trump, Joe Biden, "establishment Republicans," 'establishment Democrats," and "the military."
Toobin was playing "the courts." [How fitting]
Why opinion polls are problematic: ‘
Opinion polls are a device for influencing public opinion, not a device for measuring it. Crack that, and it all makes sense.’ --
Peter Hitchens. Here’s a
less-genteel take (10/16, NSFW) and a
more-sociological take (10/19) on recent polling.
-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------
"When the truth cannot be reported, it is
worse than being lied to about what is truly happening" (10/22).
But what if the American public just doesn't care?
More-to-ignore here (10/24), unless you think that
a coverup can be more scandalous than the scandal (
more here).
Re:
Our future First Family? … Trading on the family name is especially corrupting … excerpt (10/26):
Modern theorists argue that morality is the spring of democracy. It may be that the driving force of liberal democracy is the absence of any moral code. The liberal democratic ruling class is one without scruples. The heart of the empire is an open air market where everything is for sale.
....
Is your
truth based on what's trending on social media? On the critical
Twitter political battlefront,
the sides are clearly divided (10/15)…

This meta-data could be fertile ground for ratio-ed analysis, but the results wouldn't be very edifying, like the vast majority of social media.
With his extensive experience in the Obama administration, Biden knows that we need frankness in the White House … Joe discloses
one of his ‘truths’ about campaign strategies (10/24).
And for our much-needed entertainment...
