Election 2020

noetsi

Fortran must die
#22
All the polls said that Trump would lose last time. The problem with polls is that people lie to themselves and the pollsters. Or the pollster never reaches them in the first place. And there is no effective way to predict turn out. This is particularly true in the COVID era which will change behavior significantly.

Trump as a majority in the only place it counts given that the election will end up in court most likely the Supreme Court. BTW I am a bible thumper (or certainly would like to be). :)
 
#23
Doesn't really seem like a probability thread anymore.
Your call, of course, but check out this odd probability action...

Biden has almost an 80% chance of winning the first Presidential Debate...

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...with the 'winner' being determined by a 'CNN Snap Poll'. Talk about layered uncertainty ... which at this point shouldn't surprise anyone, I s'pose.

And does probability really apply when the fix-is-in..? (If it seems like déjà vu all over again ... you’ve seen this act before, in pro wrestling (9/27), what with its well-scripted and -choreographed kayfabe.)

In effort to soften up Trump before the debate, The New York Times churns out 10,000 words of analysis and commentary on The Donald’s tax returns (9/28; with no Russian connection uncovered, alas). But complex tax analysis is not for internet-expert amateurs, who tend to convey "basically a bunch of meaningless buzz words strung together to prey on the feelings of the gullible" (9/28).

Regardless of the upcoming debate action, Joe Biden has done an excellent job in expectation-lowering (9/28) and evading late-night parody (9/27).

Shaken, not stirred ... FiveThirtyEight: Will The First Presidential Debate Shake Up The Race? ... TBD (9/29).
UPDATE (9/29): And, in a metaphorical parallel with pro wrestling and martial arts ... before Joe climbs in the ring -- to go mano-a-mano with the incumbent -- will there be any *juice* in the pre-debate concoction for performance-enhancement, and if so: Which drugs should Biden take? (a helpful guide)​
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LATER... With the President seemingly on a healthy dose of Adderall+ in last night's debate, Biden did indeed garner more thumbs-up in the CNN snap poll (9/30), as projected:

(CNN) Six in 10 debate watchers said former Vice President Joe Biden did the best job in Tuesday's debate, and just 28% say President Donald Trump did, according a CNN Poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS.​

So, in the ratio of “best job” in the debate, Biden had about twice as many approvals (60%/28%, or 2.1X).

Interestingly, Spanish-speaking Americans thought that Trump won the debate by a factor of almost 2X (66%/34%, or 1.9X, Telemundo poll; 9/30), inverting the CNN result.

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

In the Presidential debacle debate, one might say that Trump was too aggressive and combative by a factor of, say, 5X or so ... potentially turning off suburban moms, while impressing Latinos. Despite that it might be good to have an outspoken MMA star in your corner, it's not generally advisable to apply his tactics when civil discourse is the norm, though some non-voters suggest otherwise (9/30).

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In an impressive display of much-needed bipartisanship, the distinguished cage warrior was reportedly invited as a special guest by BOTH the Trump and Biden campaigns (AP).
Meanwhile, in a less-combative sport than MMA, this is certainly one treacherous political cycle, career-wise (10/1). News you can use: Don’t get the shading on your emoji wrong...

Follow-the-Money Dept: What does the DC Establishment stand to gain with Trump out and Biden in? ... There are Trillions at Stake.” (10/3)

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The 'Lobbying industry' -- the real 'lawmakers' in DC -- has grown 50X in 30 years.
DNC psy-ops sales pitch: A vote for Biden/Harris is a "return to normalcy" (10/8, excerpt below) … nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
Another technique being used is to make voting against Trump the default option if you wish to escape the insanity of 2020. Many states, for example, have promised to end the Covid restrictions after the election. The media is injecting the term “return to normalcy” when discussing a Biden victory. In other words, having created a highly unpleasant environment for the public, they are now talking about the one door through which people can escape the madness of the current year.​
Priming the mostly-peaceful pump? … Biden says 'chicanery' at polls is the only way he could lose US election (10/10). One could wonder whether that's a dog-whistle message of 'get ready to ... rumble', if the Election outcome doesn't trend his way, improbably.
UPDATE (10/18): Planning a little getaway around, say, November 3rd? Might not be a bad idea.​
UPDATE (10/26): Nate Silver thinks that Trump can win only if ... 1) there’s been a grievous polling error, or 2) “the election is stolen somehow (10/26). The Russians could not be reached for comment, perhaps because they were out buying popcorn in preparation for next week's Show...​
UPDATE (10/29): With a Biden victory, the bipartisan Blob’ will retake Washington, DC.​
 
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#24
With his debate success (see above), Joe Biden now leads in RCP Average probability: Biden at 60.1% and Trump at 40.1% (which oddly sum to more than 100%, 10/1; as noted earlier, the RCP Average uses linear odds-to-probs conversion, which understates the probability of the favorite, as the odds diverge from ‘even’).

With nonlinear odds-to-probs conversion, the Democrats’ lead in probability is considerably more substantial: D: 74.9%, R: 25.0% (based on Betfair decimal odds: D: 1.5, R: 2.5, I: 201). This is an almost a +50% advantage for Biden, vs the linear RCP edge of +16%, if one uses this (unadvised) linear metric. For the more-meaningful nonlinear ratio metric, see below the chart.

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NOTE: From a ratio standpoint, these odds imply that Biden is now 3X more likely to win the election than Trump. Just a day before, pre-debate, Biden was only about 1.6X more likely (Betfair, R/D odds-ratio of 1.2/0.73).
 
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Karabiner

TS Contributor
#25
Italics + Colour + Bold.

I asume that only with ALL CAPS and underlines we stupid readers will understand, so

BIDEN IS NOW 3X MORE LIKELY TO WIN THE ELECTION THAN TRUMP.
 
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#28
Pardon me, of course it's

BIDEN IS NOW 3X MORE LIKELY TO WIN THE ELECTION THAN TRUMP !!
What ... no emojis?

So sorry if my off-colour remark triggers your religious sensibilities…
A holy oath forbids me to ever use emojis.

Tired of all this ‘biasball’? “It’s an insane world…” here in 2020, so why not ‘blaseball (10/14).

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A UK superfan, with Elton-John attire, will explain this nuanced, inclusive virtual sport.
 
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#29
President Trump and the First Lady are diagnosed with COVID-19, which confounds the oddsmakers … only one betting house, Smarkets, has a line on Election 2020 at press time.

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Like Real Clear Politics, Smarkets helpfully calculates -- linearly -- the implied probabilities from their odds, which understates the likelihood of the favorite.

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UPDATE (10/2): Just a few hours later, the Smarkets odds are now D:0.51, R:2.2, I:299 ... which implies over an 81% probability of the Democrats winning the Election. (Other betting houses still have suspended wagering on this event with all the uncertainty, what a bunch of weenies.)​
NOTE: From a ratio standpoint, these odds (R/D = 2.2/0.51) imply that Biden is now 4.3X more likely to win the election than Trump.
It certainly has been some year, hasn’t it? And we still have a long way to go...

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Kicking a man when he's down used to be a sign of lack-of-character, pre-2020 … of course, times have changed, and hate is now the relative metric, not character (10/3).
UPDATE: Kicking a man when he’s down a heavy favorite to be elected President ... whomever made this ‘authentic’ video lacks character.​

Just in case ... make sure that your 'dying wishes' are in order (10/3).

The Tale of Two Women (10/16) … perhaps we’ve reached a crossroads, and maybe a turn is preferable to just barreling straight ahead. Forward! Speaking of barreling-straight-ahead, business-as-usual … an unfortunate historical analogy, re: passively accepting oblivion (10/16).
 
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#30
With President Trump out of the hospital and back in the saddle, let’s revisit the odds-implied probabilities ... Smarkets is now joined by Betfair and four other betting houses in providing odds on Election 2020.

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RCP uses the linear odds-to-probs conversion in determining the average implied probability: 61.8% for Biden, and 37.0% for Trump. These linearly-derived percentages can be corrected into nonlinear probabilities with the simple formula, for two-outcome events (see post):

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This algorithm translates RCP’s linear probabilities into the proper nonlinear odds-to-probs: about 74% for Biden, and 26% for Trump … or a 2.8X advantage in likelihood of election (this is calculated from the average of six inputs, not just Smarkets, as the above post).

UPDATE (10/8): While there is some disagreement on the relative performances of Harris and Pence in the VP Debate (10/8. more here), the Harris-Biden ticket continues to show strength in odds-implied probability: The RCP Average's (corrected) probabilities are now 77.1% for Biden and 22.9% for Trump ... a 3.4X advantage.

Then again, the Trump campaign has been here before, at the same juncture -- in 2016 -- but then even more so ... see below a chart on RCP’s probability of a Trump victory in both 2016 and 2020 (linearly derived, so overstate the underdog’s implied probability) plotted against the number of days until the Elections.

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NOTE: Just before the 2016 Election, RCP's linear probability for Donald Trump was about 13%, which had converted to a nonlinear probability of only 2.2% ... which translated to more than a 44X advantage for Hillary Clinton in odds-implied probability.
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If, as was forecast as a definite possibility by the Democrats' star-studded, uber-credible Transition Integrity Project, Trump refuses to leave office, literally, after his expected Electoral defeat, The New York Times mulls whether to involve the United Nations in his removal: America May Need International Intervention (10/7; Flashback, Election 2000).

During cosplay of a post-Election 2020 simulation – paralleling the acclaimed Transition Integrity Project -- The New Yorker’s Jeffery Toobin enjoys on-camera personal stimulation, gets suspended (10/20), but he apparently is “too valuable a commodity” to keep him down for long:

Vice reported on Monday that the Zoom call, which was described as an "election simulation," featured Toobin's New Yorker colleagues Jane Mayer, Masha Gessen, Andrew Marantz, Jelani Cobb, Evan Osnos, Sue Halpern and Dexter Filkins playing various roles including President Trump, Joe Biden, "establishment Republicans," 'establishment Democrats," and "the military." Toobin was playing "the courts." [How fitting]

Why opinion polls are problematic: ‘Opinion polls are a device for influencing public opinion, not a device for measuring it. Crack that, and it all makes sense.’ -- Peter Hitchens. Here’s a less-genteel take (10/16, NSFW) and a more-sociological take (10/19) on recent polling.

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"When the truth cannot be reported, it is worse than being lied to about what is truly happening" (10/22).

But what if the American public just doesn't care? More-to-ignore here (10/24), unless you think that a coverup can be more scandalous than the scandal (more here).

Re: Our future First Family? … Trading on the family name is especially corrupting … excerpt (10/26):

Modern theorists argue that morality is the spring of democracy. It may be that the driving force of liberal democracy is the absence of any moral code. The liberal democratic ruling class is one without scruples. The heart of the empire is an open air market where everything is for sale.​
....

Is your truth based on what's trending on social media? On the critical Twitter political battlefront, the sides are clearly divided (10/15)…

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This meta-data could be fertile ground for ratio-ed analysis, but the results wouldn't be very edifying, like the vast majority of social media.
With his extensive experience in the Obama administration, Biden knows that we need frankness in the White House … Joe discloses one of his ‘truths’ about campaign strategies (10/24).

And for our much-needed entertainment...
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#31
Concerned about a possible future backlash from disgruntled Americans if this conspiracy natural chain-of-events plays out, just as projected? Well, don’t worry … the Department of Homeland Security has that potential ‘extremist scenario’ already covered (9/4, more here and also here), and has identified a domestic group that poses a threat “more significant than the immediate danger from foreign terrorists.
[from earlier post]
THAT CERTAINLY DIDN'T TAKE LONG Category (Part 1):
Just a few weeks ago, the Department of Homeland Security declared that ‘white supremacists’ are the biggest domestic terrorist threat. Well, through “the efforts of more than 200 state and federal law enforcement officials”, we finally can see what these nefarious types look like, as the FBI uncovers an armed militia plot to abduct Michigan Gov. Whitmer (10/9; more here, including reference to ‘FBI handlers’ in the plotting, similar to what's been done to snare Muslim wannabe domestic terrorists).

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Their 'supremacy' appears to be covert ... but not for eager news outlets...
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THAT CERTAINLY DIDN'T TAKE LONG Category (Part 2):
'White Supremacist' Narrative Unravels (10/11): Whitmer kidnap suspect attended BLM rally, another called Trump a 'tyrant'.
Something that should bring Americans together, in these trying times ... "it appears that the FBI busted an anarchist, anti-government militia which plotted violence against elected officials - yet hated both sides of the aisle."

If the ol' tin-foil hat fits...
conspiracy [noun]: An agreement between two or more people to commit an illegal act, along with an intent to achieve the agreement's goal. Most U.S. jurisdictions also require an overt act toward furthering the agreement (10/15).

But what if the given conspirators -- say, for instance, huge social-media companies -- deem the 'overt act' to be righteous and pure, preventing something ‘potentially harmful (10/15) ... what then?

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Meanwhile, in the ongoing nationwide struggle to dismantle 'white supremacy', diversity is sometimes lacking…

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Not that this has any bearing whatsoever on Election 2020, but Rudy Giuliani has a history of bringing down ‘crime families (10/15; more here, 10/17).

'Nothing to see here, move along' Category (10/15):
The FBI ignored this irrelevant information in their possession for the better part of a year, so you and most of the American media can certainly overlook the distraction for a few more weeks. But, WAIT ... thanks to the ‘Streisand effect’, that blissful ignorance might not be possible (10/16) ... and it could get awfully messy (10/17, more mess smeared here), now that the Russians are involved ... since why not, having no other plausible reasoning.

UPDATE (10/16): Along with much much else in murky financial connections, “the senator from Amtrak” coincidentally had his son on the Board of Directors of … Amtrak.​
UPDATE (10/17): Do you buy the Joe-knows-nothing defense? ... C’mon, man.​
Dereliction of duty, hiding a one-man ‘national security crisis’..? The FBI really really should have sorted this out, back when this Election 2020 thread started, when squeaky-clean Bernie was the Democratic frontrunner. (Oh, well … *Hindsight is 20/20 in 2020*, and we’ve done everything perfectly to be exactly where we are today.)​
UPDATE (10/18): Why Facebook suppressed Hunter Biden revelations ... that FBI FB decision was made by an ex-advisor on Ukraine to VP Biden, of all places and people. Gee, what a small cozy world, at least at the top.​
UPDATE (10/19): OK, it looks like someone’s in violation of Federal Statute 52 U.S.C §30101(8)(A)(i), as their “active suppression of public speech … appears to constitute [unlawful] contributions under federal law”. That’s a nice exemption you social-media guys have there in Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act … y'know, it’d be an indecency shame if something happened to it...​
Also ... The Biden administration will be comfortably ‘boring’, so why bother with censorship? (10/19)​
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America, do NOT wander off-script again, like back in 2016: ‘Truth’ Over Facts (10/19)

Script-improv ... 'Huntergate': 4D-chess by Trump surrogates? (10/19)

Is this on the script..?!? (10/18): Neil deGrasse Tyson warns asteroid could hit Earth day before election.

This certainly is scripted: ‘Listen to scientists’, as a punchline (10/19).

This is waaaay off-script: American Gothic Horror (10/19) ... and it could have plenty of sequels, spinoffs and soul-searching retrospectives. Much of this development work could hinge on the definition of the word ‘am.

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Losing control of the script: A well-reasoned rant from an anti-antiracist on the Biden clan of 'Ordinary People' and today’s wacky state of the Union (10/17) ... “At this point, why anyone expects anything to make sense makes absolutely no sense to me.”

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#32
European gamblers have ‘bet the farm’ on Biden (10/12; Euro-bias = faulty data?). Oddschecker’s composite linear odds-implied probabilities appear below, chronicling the improbable incredible rise of the Joe Juggernaut

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…Oddschecker notes that “odds say Biden is now over twice as likely as Trump to win”, or an advantage of 2.08X (69.2%/33.3%).​

However, the nonlinear odds-to-probs conversion method has the implied probabilities as Biden 81.8% and Trump 18.2% (10/12), or a 4.5X advantage for Biden.

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Scrutiny avoids the Biden 2020 campaignLuck o’ the Irish: Joe Biden is the luckiest, least scrutinized frontrunner (10/14).

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For the Biden campaign, you may recall, it wasn’t always this way, in times ‘BC’ … Before Carolina, South.
[Flashback scrutiny (Jan 29): The Tragedy of Joe Biden.]

UPDATE (10/16): During their concurrent-while-independent 'town hall' questioning sessions, Biden demonstrated comforting leadership and empathy, with his endearing stream-of-consciousness rambling, including that he’d contain the pandemic by being ‘rational.’ Meanwhile, Trump squabbled over his lack of proper PPE protocols, a critical aspect of any decent White House administration.

As per the script, America yearns for a 'return to normalcy' … assuming that we can overlook a few minor boring details, like the FBI had. (With all sundry boring details, at this point, we need to keep in mind ... what difference does it make? The script says we're in the middle of a referendum here, and so need to stay focused for the next few weeks, perhaps a bit longer.)
....

Hey, this sounds like extortion, which might be legal if a government official does it…
Michigan Governess Whitmer: If You’re Tired of Masks And Wish You Could Go Back to Church, Vote for Biden (10/19), which seems like the plan all along. Commentary:

Everything is designed to affect the election, and if Biden wins, he’ll need a strong economy to win again (or Harris will); thus, everything will return to normal and America will treat COVID just like Biden and Obama treated the Swine Flu…like it never existed.​
[Context: An estimated 60 million Americans were infected with the Swine flu back in 2008-09, which was -- fortunately -- less fatal than COVID.]

Hey, this sounds like collusion, which might be legal if a government official does it…
Finally, the private and public sectors collaborating towards a common goal: Media and Intel Community Working Together To Manipulate The American People (10/19)
....

What a responsible candidate, not like some (superspreader) people! BIDEN-HARRIS 2020 rallies are ideal for COVID protocols (10/19, more here, and here).

Sy Kopathe for President 2020 (10/20).

Dualing scripts: A simple choice -- a referendum, in fact -- of Good vs Evil, with long-term consequences (10/21).

C’mon, man ... Damning details on the passive-but-lucrative role of ‘the Big Guy’ in shady overseas deals, delivered by a contrite ex-jailbird (10/22, much more here). In his addition to financial acumen, 'the Big Guy’ knows how to deal with sensitive issues (10/20), before voters head to the polls.

Tip: “Don’t waste your time on stories that are not really stories … just pure distractions” (10/22).

Nothing-to-see-here Category (10/22) ... [NATIONAL BLACKOUT on a NOTHINGBURGER]

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Grubby boring financial details, that no one respectable should consider, let alone report (10/22).

Be A Prole – Vote Chairman Jo 2020 (10/20).

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Reality has finally trumped George Orwell’s imagination (10/23).

‘Saving democracy’ … one expense account at a time (10/24).
....

With the dust settled, we find that odds-implied probabilities now stand at Biden 76.6% and Trump 23.4% (nonlinear correction of Real Clear Politics Average, 10/31; updates here), or almost a 3.3X advantage for Biden.
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#33
Government is the great fiction,
through which everybody endeavors
to live at the expense of everybody else.​
-- Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850)

Some people work for a living,
-- Anonymous
You say you want a revolution..?!?
Well, this Brit says we can't pull off that sh*t nowadays (10/17), thanks to our dependence on government and separation from tangible production (agriculture, industrial; see chart below). The critical skillset of self-sufficiency is not who-we-are.

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Despite most Americans no longer having the skills and capability to farm nor manufacture goods, our nascent industry of 'PREEMPTIVE DEBUNKING' is very healthy and growing (10/20, video; perhaps that's our 'revolution').

Experienced debunkers can apply for great jobs, assisting High Tech Oligarchs threaten democracy (10/20): “The rise of the internet oligarchs might indeed do more serious damage to the freedoms that still survive in the United States than will victory by either Biden or Trump.” This may already be evident in the selective restrictions on poking fun of glorious leaders ... to 'push back' against this troubling trend, perhaps we can start with something simple and innocuous

Then again, in tomorrow's America, we'll certainly have lots of demand for government informants (10/17), to keep things under control.

A leading Classics historian notes that democracy’s viability is predicated on a healthy middle class that commits time and resources to managing and improving the greater society (10/20, video at link). 'Citizens' – contributors who did not live off the state, nor tore down what’s been created before – were the only folks who could vote in ancient Athens ... which makes too much sense, so fuggetaboutit. If what's now happening in the US is indeed a ‘revolution’, the historian sees our journey going more along the lines of the French Revolution, which was fought for the abstractions “liberty, equality, and fraternity … sound at all familiar? Wonder how all that French stuff worked out, anyway...

WANTED: Civic-minded American ‘elites’ … as it’s not going well with our present set of ruling elites, bringing talk of messy insurrection and even revolution (10/21), yikes. Excerpts:
  • Every ruling elite relies on legitimacy.
  • The crisis we see today is a crisis of legitimacy, where a growing portion of the public questions the legitimacy of the system.
  • This revolt of the elites is more like an insurrection within the elite. They no longer accept the legitimacy of the system that allows them to be an elite.
  • There is a core of Americans who do want to fix the machine, but they are now treated as an enemy by the elites.
UPDATE (10/22): Joseph de Maistre said, “Every country has the government it deserves.” Ours seems like it's all cosplay.​
Then again, just relax .... there's no escape from this dependency on staging and staying on-message (10/21).​
UPDATE (10/25): The Myth of ‘Build Back Better’our elites as Nero, who at least was capable of delivering on his master plan to rebuild Rome, after fiddling while it burned.​
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While voting, consider that your life needs purpose (10/23), in this Land of Opportunity Ceaseless Conflict.

Gearing up’ for the Election? (10/23, Bloomberg paywall; also here)

Gearing up for the Election, an ex-Attorney General is above-the-law (10/25), which facilitates near-term surprises.

Don’t waste your time on "stories that are not really stories,” as that would be “fundamentally dishonest” (10/26).

Alas, the halcyon days of ‘normality’ may be behind us, so … Just vote for whatever form of abnormal you prefer (10/27).

Exploring the nuances of 'private censorship' at Big Social Media ... with the human-like founder/CEOs of Facebook and Twitter (10/28, more here on tech censorship).

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'Not Aware' ... meet ... 'Not Sure'

When the media comes out against freedom-of-the-press -- “thereby inadvertently committing suicide of the entire profession” -- you know it’s the Last Round-up at the Wokester Corral (10/26).

Monoculture-media groupthink can happen to you … this intrepid contrarian webzine-founder was censored by his own webzine (10/29) -- for suggesting that [REDACTED AS UNVERIFIED] -- then resigns in a Brazilian hissy fit (webzine's reaction here, more here).

This hasn't yet been approved by Big Brother, but ... Economic considerations in Election 2020, in light of the “largest social and economic experiment in American history: the COVID-19 lockdowns” (10/29).

Free exchange of ideas: ABC News breaks the blackout on Biden’s Burisma biz (10/30), while the New York Post is free as a bird onTwitter.

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#34
WANTED: Nonpartisan Election 2020 Metric

How about ‘time’? Time doesn't generally stir partisan-bias, applies equally for everyone, including both sides of the political aisle, and can't be manipulated.

Let’s look at when Election 2020 will be ‘called’, perhaps within the margin-of-lawyer. From PredictIt:

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[ABOVE FROM 10/22 ... UPDATED CHART BELOW]
So, here's the bottom line -- on October 22 (more recent below) -- on time-interval probabilities of the Election being called on:
  • Election Day = 36%
  • Election Day, or day after = 70%
  • After Dec 1st = 14%
  • All Other (intermediate time-intervals) = Margin-of-Lawyer (MoL) = 16%
How's this for the new nonpartisan Election 2020 metametric: the ratio of the probability of a timely call (Election Day or day after) and that of a very delayed call (after December 1st)?​
That resultant 'Call-Timeliness' Ratio (CTR) would be 4.9X (69.9%/14.2%), with the MoL at 15.9% (10/22).

UPDATES:
10/24: CTR = 5.1X (70.0%/13.9%). MoL = 16.1%.
10/25: CTR = 4.8X (68.0%/14.3%). MoL = 17.7%.
10/26: CTR = 4.4X (64.5%/14.6%). MoL = 20.9%.
10/27: CTR = 5.3X (67.6%/12.8%). MoL = 19.5%.
10/28: CTR = 5.1X (67.2%/13.3%). MoL = 19.5%.
10/29: CTR = 4.8X (65.5%/13.6%). MoL = 20.9%.
10/30: CTR = 7.2X (67.2%/9.3%). MoL = 23.5%.
Big drop in 'very delayed' call (after Dec 1st), and incremental bump up in timely call (Nov. 3 or 4).
10/31: CTR = 8.2X (68.5%/8.4%). MoL = 23.1%.
The 'call timeliness ratio' (CTR) continues to trend upwards...
10/31: CTR = 6.2X (66.1%/10.6%). MoL = 23.3%.
The CTR has a significant decline, while the MoL creeps upwards...
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#35
Will the nonpolitical Silent Majority pop up, and pipe up on Election Day? (10/28)

Back in 2016, Did Not Vote won in a landslide...

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Nonpolitical 4D-Coalition? Bikers and buggies, rappers and golfers

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At the very least, we're looking at known unknowns then...
In the category of known knowns, post-Election...
You know voting for the Biden ticket was a good idea, as it benefited from the foresight and preparation of our country’s ruling elite, as well as funding from the vast majority of American institutions (see chart below), especially those institutions that consolidate, massage and present information (see also chart belower).

Where are powerful American institutions donating their money?

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The red outliers at bottom are the US Marines and NYPD.


How liberal or conservative are our industries?

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Post the Big Event, transitions are critical … the Biden administration-in-waiting strikes while the fire is hot… (11/5)
UPDATES ... GSA: Not so fast (11/9). And Biden should know better than to violate the Logan Act (11/10) … right, General Flynn?​

Post-Election nostalgia: Trump as Nixon, the focus of fading radicalism? (11/5) … “The generation that made a fetish of free speech, good government and democracy, is now closing the show with censorship, corruption and now the undermining of democratic legitimacy.” Earlier, the same pessimist also offered that perhaps we ought to have the UN provide adult supervision of our chaotic Elections (11/4). Here’s his scarier pre-Election take on the country's dynamics (11/3).

Post-Election wisdom, on the Dem’s most reliable voting bloc: BET founder Robert Johnson says voting Democrat gives Black Americans ‘minimal return’ (11/5) … which would have been more helpful if delivered, y'know, pre-Election. Of course, for future leverage, the give-us-our-due stance is now a pretty sweet bargaining chip with the beneficiary of said most-reliable voting bloc.

Post-TIP, comes TAP: the Trump Accountability Project … “We must never forget those who furthered the Trump agenda” … and they’re apparently ‘making lists’, whooooa. Cynical take on Trumpism vs Journalism here (11/8, paywall).
UPDATE (11/9): Making lists is a sign of an arrogant empire in decline. As is a detached elite [check], spiraling debt [check], decaying infrastructure [check], social unrest [check], etc etc...​
 
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#36
Apparently, the ‘Iowa Poll’ of 814 likely voters has longstanding national significance as a bellwether, and Trump now has an edge for the first time since March: 48% for Trump vs 41% for Biden (see below, 10/31; more here). Support for the former VP is seen as ‘fading’, which is a bad look so close to the election … perhaps Middle America thinks that it’s time to put a lid on this charade.

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Iowa has proudly served as a bellwether for the national political mood for many years. In the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses, Joe Biden finished fourth -- behind Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren -- while Kamala Harris wasn’t even a consideration.

Then again, nationwide, the odds-implied probability shows a Biden victory as still the heavy favorite, with Biden 77.6% and Trump 22.4% (nonlinear correction of Real Clear Politics Average, 11/1), or almost a 3.5X advantage for Biden.

Additionally, by projecting from the odds for each state, Ladbrokes Politics has Biden winning the Electoral College by 305 to 233 (270 required to win, 11/1).
 
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#37
CIVIL WAR II ... what are the odds?

A leading cliodynamist -- with an excellent track record with data-based predictions – playfully posits himself as an alien from Alpha Centauri for the ultimate nonpartisan perspective in this structural demographic view of our “post-truth world” (11/1).

‘It’ sees the United States as an “extremely fragile state, which in technical terms is known as the revolutionary situation” ..and.. that we are “on the cusp with a highly positive Lyapunov exponent”, where “unless there is a clean win, we will be in situation where possible trajectories start diverging dramatically.”

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Reality can be wickedly nonlinear, and results way less than zero-sum..

The alien doesn’t see ‘the problem’ as coming from the masses … rather the division of our elites in their worldviews is driving this. It also notes that secession(s) and/or Civil War II is also possible. And violence could always be delayed … the American-history-buff alien points out that while the abolitionist Republican Abe Lincoln was elected in late 1860 -- outraging the slave-owning Democrats, leading to the South seceding -- the first battle wasn’t waged for 7 months. But that was before the internet.

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Yes, it all seems far-fetched, and certainly couldn't happen here, but surveying today's sociopolitical dynamics can lead folks to differing viewpoints on what the present is, and what the future holds:
UPDATE (11/9): Like with that election, we may not know what’s next, but Team Deep State probably has a pretty solid idea. And they've certainly factored in that rebels from Team Red, loyal to the despotic ruler in the process of being deposed, may be, uh, problematic.​
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You might wanna get acquainted with this Constitutional metric.

  • Boring facts and logistics on possible domestic ‘Color Revolution’ postal shenanigans (11/8).
  • More boring facts, figures, statistical analyses and eye-witness accounts here and here and here.

-------[ WAIT ... BANNED IN BOSTON!!! ]---------

[ЗДЕСЬ НЕЧЕГО СМОТРЕТЬ, ДВИГАЙТЕСЬ ДАЛЬШЕ]
Товарищи... Скажите Владу, что его идея использовать "теорию Ляпунова" товарища Турчина была блестящим маневром и, как предполагала проклятая теория, полностью вызвала желаемую реакцию. Благодаря временному запрету на этом сайте эти бедняги пропустили всплеск вероятности в ночь выборов, когда Трамп достиг пика в 98% после закрытия избирательных участков, и это число резко упало на следующее утро, когда по почте пришли сомнительные бюллетени, почти все для Байдена. -- очень "неожиданно", но достойно Сталина! -- и это было очень неловко ... и очень смешно! (Но коррупция глубока, так что не волнуйтесь.) Продвигаясь вперед, особенно теперь, когда элита считает, что у них есть "мандат с Байденом" (забавный каламбур на английском языке), подавление даже умеренного инакомыслия американским медиаклассом и глобальной элитой обеспечивает долгосрочную нестабильность в стране, что, несомненно, порадует тех, кто извлекает выгоду из угасающей американской гегемонии. Наряду с их постоянной поддержкой усилий президента Си по сеянию социального раскола, инакомыслия и хаоса в Америке, полезные слуги из администрации Байдена, средств массовой информации и корпораций доступны по запросу. Кстати, вам действительно нужно, чтобы я снова работал под прикрытием в Давосе, чтобы записывать достойные шантажа разговоры о теневом процессе Западной глобальной элиты, таком как выборы 2020 года? Это поможет вам получить выгоду со всех сторон. Всего наилучшего олигархам. С уважением... Нелинейный агент с нулевой суммой
 

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#38
WANTED: Statistical Integrity
(Elections-Have-Consequences Category)

It’s safe to assume that a fair number of TalkStats members are highly-trained statisticians, and perhaps practice the art/science vocationally, maybe even in the political realm, and so may be able to offer some perspective and guidance on the following:
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NOTE: As has been earlier reviewed elsewhere ... while percentages may be convenient in relaying a piece or set of information, it is generally inadvisable to use these percentages in further calculations, as that can obscure, convolute and even corrupt more-general information, and therefore conclusions. To manipulate information beyond a singular statement, one should use ratios ... RATIONAL numbers (more here, on a parallel topic).

Trump improved his relative support from 2016 to 2020 with every demographic group -- except White Men -- so he apparently is a pretty rotten 'sexist' and 'racist'. In addition, turns out that Trump was a crummy authoritarian too, as he was “easily beaten” (11/6). Orange Man Bad, indeed.

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------
Those who cast the votes decide nothing.
Those who count the votes decide everything.

‘Red Flag’ Nation (11/5; rude words) … with tomfoolery suspiciously all in one direction -- another statistical anomaly:
When you are auditing you see mistakes happen all the time. Humans make errors. Except in real life, mistakes usually go in different directions. When all the mistakes go in the same direction and benefit the same parties, they probably aren’t mistakes. They’re malfeasance.​
More from disgruntled-types here and here and here.

Meanwhile...
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x​
 
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#39
With Election 2020 being 'called' for Biden (11/7), in a race he "made about character", perhaps Benford's Law and associated statistics-and-probability theorems and methodology need to be under lockdown until further notice ... as this type of credible number-theory study meaningless drivel starts to trickle in...

[WARNING: NOTHING TO SEE HERE, MOVE ALONG]
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Here’s more...
Disgruntled Trump supporter lashes out on the ballot count (11/7) … no, no, not with protests, rioting, looting, defacing, what have you … but with song.
 
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#40
Since the American media ‘called’ the race for Biden, the conventional betting markets on Election 2020 have been shut down, probably for Reasons, and good ones at that.

However, PredictIt keeps the flame alive, with their cents-pricing of the possible outcomes, including Election 2020. Of course, one should not conflate cents-pricing with implied probability, despite both metrics being on the same 0-100 scale. Cents-pricing is linear, while the true monatomic odds-probability relationship is nonlinearlike with the conventional linear conversion of odds-to-probs, cents-pricing overstates the underdog’s probability, while understating the favorite’s probability.

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Trump's implied probability of just over 2% (11/9) does kinda match about where he stood in odds-implied probability, converted from regular odds, when the other betting markets closed shop. In light of the political and constitutional nuances reviewed above, this number could be fun to watch (see below).

UPDATE (11/10): Trump's probability = 3.2%.​
UPDATE (11/11): Trump's probability = 2.8%.​
UPDATE (11/13): Trump's probability = 2.6%.​
UPDATE (11/14): Trump's probability = 1.4%.​
UPDATE (11/15): Trump's probability = 1.7%.​
UPDATE (11/16): Trump's probability = 2.4%.​
UPDATE (11/18): Trump's probability = 2.0%.​
 
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