Energy Predictions for budgets - where to begin

#1
Hi,

I have a lot of electricity data for many years of monthly electric bills. I have created scatter plots with a trend line in excel using dates on the x-axis and consumption (kWh) on the y axis. This all works great and gives me a lot of insight, but I want to take this a lot further. I want to use the same data and the slope of the trend line to predict future years using formulas to return numbers, rather than relying solely on the visual scatter charts. To keep it simple I am not considering any other variables such as weather for now, because I do not know what future weather is going to be. Additionally I want build some padding in my budget based on the SSE (sum of squares due to error) for values above the y-hat in the historical data.

I am very new with statistics, but as an energy manager and former engineer, I have a very analytical approach to solving problems. However, I am in a bit over my head with this. I am not looking for anyone to do my work for me, but any suggestions on how I should approach this would be great.

Thank you.
 

staassis

Active Member
#2
Try ARIMA models. Excel is not the right language for them. In fact, it is not the right language for 99% of statistics and finance. Convenient implementations of ARIMA can be found in R / R Studio, EViews and Stata.