Say in a race there are 22 competitors and say that the probability of driver A of winning the race is 55%. How can one calculate the probability of driver A to finish the race in the first three positions?
With just what you've provided, the only answer is 55% for driver A to finish in the first three positions (actually, exactly first place). This is because we do not know driver A's chances of ending up in 2nd place, 3rd place, or not in the top three positions.
However, I feel what you mean leans more towards what is the probability of driver A finishing in 1st, 2nd, OR 3rd place, right?