# I need help to find out the odds of something i did

#### Weird_Edits

##### New Member
I recently played a game of battleship, and I unexpectedly got the first 10 guesses in a row, and i don't know how to calculate the probability of that myself, and the reason why I want to know is because i would think that it would be very unlikely and I also just wanna know the probability of it happening.

#### AngleWyrm

##### New Member
Let's say it's a 10x10 peg board, and you are choosing one location each try. Some number of those locations are success and some are failure, depending on the number and size of ships on the board. So the first try is x/100 to succeed, where x is the number of pegs containing enemy ships.

The second try is different in several ways. First, there are now 99 possible choices. Second the selection isn't strictly random, because you now have information on whether the first try was a success or failure. And third, the number of possible successes depends on whether the first try was a success or failure.

#### katxt

##### Active Member
This problem is really too difficult to work out exactly, I think.
Can we try an easier one first. One 5 location battleship at random on the board. What is the probability of sinking it in the first 5 shots?