Monty Hall Problem in dutch game show

Hi All,

I was watching a game show yesterday and i was wondering whether the 3 door problem theory applies here and whether the contestant shoud switch. The rules of the game are as follows:

In the show there are 26 suitcases, each suitcase has a certain value of money in them varying from $0.01 dollar to $5.000.000,- dollars.

The contestant initally has to choose 1 of the cases. He/she then gets to open 6 cases, after which the bank will make an offer to buy the contestant out (although i think this is not important i thought it was worth mentioning). If the contestant chooses not to take the offer from the bank, he/she then gets to open more suitcases until eventually there are 2 suitcases left. One with a higher ammount then the other.

The contestant then gets the chance to switch cases.

Would it be a good idea to switch?

I am struggling with this because first of all i am not too good at stuff like this but 2nd of all because the host of the show does not tell anything about the contents of the suitcases nor will she tell you anything.

Does the Mony hall theory apply here?


New Member
I'm not excellent in stats, but I dont think the Monty Hall theory applies here because from my understanding, the monty hall theory revolves around Monty Hall himself KNOWING which door has the car. whereas here, the participants themselves choose the suitcases and the bank can only offer to buy the contestant out. i think at the end its really a 50/50 chance that you get a higher amount.

still, again im not very sure.


Ambassador to the humans
I agree but I don't know if the banker's offer depends on the unknowns. If the offers are purely a function of what values are still available then that wouldn't provide any information about the unknowns but If the offers do depend on the unknowns in some predictable way then that might be information you can use. If we ignore the banker's offers then yeah... it's not a monty hall situation.