Hello,

I have spent a few hours trying to untangle this problem by my knowledge of statistics appears to be too limited for me to come to a solution. I hope you can help me with this.

I've tried computing the margin of error for each proportion, but I can't figure out how to deal with all proportions being dependent.

Thank you in advance

I have spent a few hours trying to untangle this problem by my knowledge of statistics appears to be too limited for me to come to a solution. I hope you can help me with this.

On election night, the results are coming in, but only poll by poll. Assuming each poll is an independent sample of the whole riding (population), what is the probability of each candidate of winning?

Say with 6 polls out of 154 reporting (3.9%), the results are:

What is each candidates' probability of winning? (being the one with the highest proportion of votes)

Say with 6 polls out of 154 reporting (3.9%), the results are:

- Corbeil, 40%
- Garneau, 35%
- Drabkin, 12%
- Roy, 8%
- Carkner, 5%

What is each candidates' probability of winning? (being the one with the highest proportion of votes)

Thank you in advance

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